Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics — 10.13.22

 Good Thursday morning.

A national analysis of voting trends and data offers a pretty somber snapshot of Florida’s commitment to democracy.

A WalletHub study of the most and least politically engaged states in 2022 puts Florida second to last in overall voter registration.

Ouch.

It ranks Florida 42nd in the nation (read: only eight states are worse) in voter turnout in the 2020 election.

Double ouch.

It gets worse. Though better, Florida still ranks below average, at No. 28 in the nation, for voter turnout in the 2018 Midterm Election, and 33rd in the percentage increase among the electorate from elections in 2016 to 2020, which means the voting public did not significantly turn out in greater numbers when Donald Trump was on the ballot for re-election.

This is even though Florida ranks best (thankfully, there’s some good news here) in the nation for civic education engagement.

An expert questioned on the survey by WalletHub, Washington and Lee University Professor of Politics Rebecca Harris, said education is a “long-term predictor of political engagement.”

Further, the state came out fairly average as it relates to voter accessibility (No. 18) and political contributions per adult population (13th.)

So, Florida should be doing better, right? Wrong.

Despite the state’s apparent dedication to civil rights education, which has been strengthened in recent years under Gov. Ron DeSantis, Florida ranks middle-of-the-pack in overall education, at No. 26.

Combined, the data raises some important questions about voter engagement.

Aside from questions about the state’s education system, analysis within the study pointed to turnout being a function of perceived competitiveness, which all the experts interviewed for the study mentioned.

DeSantis has consistently polled ahead of, if not well ahead of, Democratic challenger Charlie Crist. FiveThirtyEight gives Republican Sen. Marco Rubio a 7-point edge against his Democratic challenger, Val Demings. If voters perceive those races as noncompetitive, Florida may well see a repeat of these trends after Nov. 8. But if they think it might be close, maybe Florida may yet see a bump in democratic engagement.

As they say, only time will tell.

___

Here are some other thoughts this morning:

— Polarization on the ballot: This year’s Midterm Elections could feature the smallest median gap between Senate and gubernatorial races since 1900, according to a FiveThirtyEight analysis. That is, a similar amount of people voting for a partisan candidate in one race are likely to cast a ballot for a member of the same party in the other, thus reducing incidences of split-ticket voting. While Vermont is an outlier in that (the state’s Republican Governor and the Democrat running for Senate are both heavy favorites to win), most states can expect to see voters side with the same party in both top-of-ticket races. That includes Florida, where the difference between DeSantis and Rubio’s respective advantages at the polls (DeSantis at R +9.6 and Rubio at R+ 7.1) is just 2.5.

— How far would a Republican majority go?: Whether you agree with it or not (and whether you think what is meant as a warning is more cause for celebration than grief), The Atlantic’s Norm Ornstein offers an interesting, if not dystopian, take on what would be if Republicans accomplish what is expected this Midterm Election — a takeover of both the U.S. House and Senate. “The country will face a series of fundamental challenges much greater than we have had in any modern period of divided government,” he wrote, noting a “direct and palpable threat of default and government shutdown.” While that threat is universal, he also offers a cautionary tale that, for many on the right, will be a cause célèbre — that the hyper-conservative Freedom Caucus would be empowered to fulfill their wish list of impeaching Joe Biden, banning abortion, repealing the Affordable Care Act, getting tough on immigration and blocking any further Trump investigations.

— How the Latino vote could decide the Midterms: There is little question that a majority of Hispanic and Latino voters will continue to support Democrats, but the size of that margin could make all the difference, posits veteran Washington Post reporter and regular New York Times columnist Thomas Edsall. In an exhaustive analysis complete with numerous inquiries to experts, Edsall points to myriad research that points to a swing in either major political party’s favor but notes several trends that could favor Republicans. That includes polling among Hispanic and Latino communities showing support for abortion restrictions, a top-of-mind talking point this cycle. Further, research shows the community feels taken for granted among Democrats. Yet, at the same time, they also report higher support for gun control and increased concern over voter suppression, both issues that should favor Democrats. But unlike Republicans, as the analysis points out, “this is not a contest the Democrats can afford to lose.”

— Does anyone even answer pollsters’ phone calls anymore? Simmer on this for a second. Just 0.4% of the dials made in a New York Times poll currently on the ground have been answered and the subject interview actually completed, according to the outlet. That means a call center interviewer would have to spend two hours dialing numbers to get a single interview done. YIKES. The New York Times tackled lingering questions about how polling is conducted and noted that screened calls are “getting pretty close to ‘death of telephone polling’ numbers.” But, they answered, weighting responses helps and they’re not there yet. Read more here.

— Barbecue buds for a day: Each year, the U.S. Senate hosts a bipartisan luncheon in Washington, where lawmakers cross the aisle in search of a unifying force — good ol’ fashioned BBQ. Sen. Chris Coons, who organizes the event, charges fiscally cheap admission, even if these days the emotional cost is great: “Sit next to someone you don’t know or ever talk to.” While that doesn’t necessarily mean Democrats and Republicans will kumbaya over pork sliders and spareribs, it did bring together Coons, fellow Democrat Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Sen. Roy Blunt and Lindsey Graham to lead the luncheon. And the wafting smells of smoked meats and tangy barbecue sauce is sure to put everyone in a good mood, if only for a day. Read more here.

— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —

—@JoeBiden: Senator Rick Scott has made it clear that he thinks Social Security and Medicare should be on the chopping block every five years. But we won’t let him and the MAGA Republicans try to get their way: http://IWillVote.com.

—@RobFinnertyUSA: Everyone is making a HUGE deal about @jaketapper helping the President pick up his notes when he dropped them during an interview — forget that. I interviewed Donald Trump over the Summer, and he didn’t have a single note … meaning there was nothing TO DROP.

—@MKRaju: The Senate was supposed to be in session this week and next, but under a deal cut by both sides, they only are adopting a motion today by voice vote to formally take up defense authorization bill. Senators are back home instead campaigning and won’t return until after Midterms

—@DaveTrotter101: It’s official, over 200,000 voters have cast their ballots in Florida.

—@JeremyH418: It’s very early but worth noting that while Democrats have returned a greater number of ballots, Republicans have returned a higher percentage of ballots vs. ballots mailed. Interested to see if this is an early tell of an enthusiasm gap.

—@MaryEllenKlas: @KevinGuthrieFL tells legislators convened to provide $360 million in additional emergency funds that it’s still another 3 weeks before floodwaters recede in Central Florida to do road repairs and home debris removal.

—@ChristinaPushaw: EXCLUSIVE BREAKING NEWS: My job is political communications, and I am a conservative. Therefore, I talk to a lot of media and influencers, particularly conservatives. This is literally public record, and my interactions with them on Twitter are also public.

—@Eric_Jotkoff: Humanity does not need Bruce Willis and Ben Affleck … We have Florida man & NASA Administrator @SenBillNelson to save us …

—@JacobOgles: I drive in my Lee County neighborhood and see so much debris and destruction from the storm. Then I see this tiny little sprig growing up through the cracks in my driveway, reminding me that nature has no use for mankind and always hated us and everything we ever made.

—@JBarro: I get a lot of nonsense pitches based on garbage data, but “83% of Americans have tried a butter board” is a new one

— DAYS UNTIL —

NBA season tips off — 5; Taylor Swift’s ‘Midnights’ release — 8; the Gubernatorial General Election debate — 11; Florida Chamber Annual Meeting & Future of Florida Forum — 11; Cormac McCarthy’s ‘The Passenger’ releases — 12; Jon Meacham’s ‘And There Was Light: Abraham Lincoln and the American Struggle’ releases — 12; City & State Florida Digital Summit — 14; Early voting begins for General Election — 16; 2022 General Election — 26; ‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’ premieres — 29; ‘Captain Marvel 2′ premieres — 29; FITCon 2022 begins — 35; ‘The Flash’ premieres — 35; The World Cup kicks off in Qatar — 39; The U.S. World Cup Soccer Team begins play — 42; Florida TaxWatch’s Annual Meeting begins — 51; ‘Willow’ premieres on Disney+ — 51; McCarthy’s ‘Stella Maris’ releases — 54; ‘Avatar 2’ premieres — 64; final Broadway performance of ‘The Music Man’ with Hugh Jackman — 80; Bruce Springsteen launches his 2023 tour in Tampa — 111; ‘Ant Man and the Wasp: Quantumania’ premieres — 127; final performance of ‘Phantom of the Opera’ on Broadway — 128; 2023 Legislative Session convenes — 145; ‘John Wick: Chapter 4′ premieres — 162; American Association of Political Consultants Pollies ’23 conference begins — 187; 2023 Session Sine Die — 204; ‘Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3’ premieres — 204; ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ premieres — 232; Christopher Nolan’s ‘Oppenheimer’ premieres — 281; ‘Dune: Part Two’ premieres — 386; ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ Part 2 premieres — 533; ‘Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes’ premieres — 589; Opening Ceremony of the 2024 Olympic Games — 652; ‘Thunderbolts’ premieres — 652; ‘Blade’ reboot premieres — 694; ‘Deadpool 3’ premieres — 757; ‘Fantastic Four’ reboot premieres — 855; ‘Avengers: The Kang Dynasty’ premieres — 932. ‘Avengers: Secret Wars’ premieres — 1,121.

Sunburn is authored and assembled by Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, Daniel Dean, Renzo Downey, Jacob Ogles, and Drew Wilson.

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