Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics — 10.12.22

 Good Wednesday morning.

The Fall edition of INFLUENCE Magazine is back from the printer. Remember, you must be a subscriber to receive a printed copy. To subscribe, please visit InfluenceMagazineFlorida.com.

___

Happening tonight:

___

A couple of other thoughts:

— The origins of immigrant ‘bus and dumps’: Former President Donald Trump popularized the idea of shipping migrants from red states to “sanctuary cities,” where officials were bullish on not buying into his hard-line immigration policies, but as a New York Times report suggests, the practices’ origin, with echoes of the Reverse Freedom Rides of the early 60s, has a murky origin story. One could look at Mike Huckabee, who three years before Trump floated the plan, touted a similar idea when he was running for President. His daughter, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, who worked for Trump, suggested the idea to her boss. Still, it was just an idea. The Times piece says Stephen Miller was a fan, too, but it wasn’t his idea. Maybe it was Texas Gov. Greg Abbott? Like they said, it’s murky.

— What Democrats are reading: “Tim Ryan’s debate performance shows Democrats how to beat MAGA candidates.” If Dems aren’t reading this, perhaps they should be. The Washington Post column by Jennifer Rubin points to a semi-viral moment during his debate Monday against GOP opponent J.D. Vance in which he took the term “bootlicker” to a whole new level by quoting Trump saying all Vance does “is kiss my ass.” He then pivoted to calling Vance out for the $40 million he received, essentially, from Mitch McConnell, money that could prompt Vance to “do whatever he wants.” There was plenty more. But the bottom line, Rubin notes, is that Ryan had plenty of takedowns without sounding “nasty” and his tone was “more incredulous than angry.

— Does Real Clear Politics deserve the whole saltshaker? In his “Democracy by the Numbers,” Elliot Morris points to a new graph on the right-leaning polling aggregation site that uses bias estimates to adjust poll averages. The result is a “polling website where Republicans are winning in a landslide. To understand, Morris points to several examples, including Pennsylvania Senate candidates John Fetterman and Mehmet Oz, which puts Fetterman, the Democrat, at a 3.7-point advantage in a raw polling aggregation. But by subtracting their estimate of bias, which assumes that at this point in past cycles, Democrats overperformed in polls by 5.9 percentage points, an assumption that puts Oz in the lead instead. While it’s fair to make certain adjustments, Morris’ analysis points to some fallacy. Read more here.

— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —

Tweet, tweet:

Today marks the first time a vehicle has been able to drive over the Sanibel Island Causeway since Hurricane Ian. Allowing this convoy of utility workers is a critical step, as crews can now ready the island for citizens to return home. Public access is anticipated by Oct. 21. pic.twitter.com/Tn8eTt45fW

— FLORIDA DOT (@MyFDOT) October 11, 2022

—@Scott_Maxwell: What he said is one thing. But don’t overlook to whom he said it. The fact that Florida’s Surgeon General is even on Steve Bannon’s show says a lot about where Florida is right now.

—@peterelkind: Florida taxpayers paid for much of the gerrymandering work. “ … the key GOP law firm working for (Ron) DeSantis logged dozens of hours on the effort, invoices show. The firm has since billed the state more than $450,000 for its work on redistricting.”

—@NoahPransky: Red flag for Democrats: They’re losing the extremism argument. New poll finds American voters just as likely to say Democratic Party is too extreme, as they are the GOP.

Tweet, tweet:

Bye Felicia https://t.co/7N5huoYmLl

— Jared Moskowitz (@JaredEMoskowitz) October 11, 2022

—@DWUhlfelderLaw: I can’t stop watching Rick Scott listening to Herschel brag about a bull who apparently impregnated 3 cows.

—@hugolowell: The Guardian: DOJ told SCOTUS that if Trump truly believed the case was about a dispute under the Presidential Records Act, then he should have filed his special master request in Washington, D.C., instead of with a judge he appointed in Florida.

—@The_TLH_Magnet: There has been no rain in Tallahassee since September 12, making the last month the driest patch of September-October weather in Tallahassee since official record-keeping began 130 years ago. The old record was set in 2019.

—@SenBillNelson: Bullseye! @NASA’s #DARTMission successfully changed the targeted asteroid’s trajectory — and its orbit by 32 minutes. This watershed moment for planetary defense is thanks to our exceptional team and international partners.

—@steveschale: Armageddon was a documentary.

—@Leah_Leonardd: In honor of National Coming Out Day, I am coming out as an unapologetic deplorable

— DAYS UNTIL —

‘Before You Vote’ TV debates (Senate) — 6; NBA season tips off — 6; Taylor Swift’s ‘Midnights’ release — 9; the Gubernatorial General Election debate — 12; Florida Chamber Annual Meeting & Future of Florida Forum — 12; Cormac McCarthy’s ‘The Passenger’ releases — 13; Jon Meacham’s ‘And There Was Light: Abraham Lincoln and the American Struggle’ releases — 13; City & State Florida Digital Summit — 15; Early voting begins for General Election — 17; 2022 General Election — 27; ‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’ premieres — 30; ‘Captain Marvel 2′ premieres — 30; FITCon 2022 begins — 36; ‘The Flash’ premieres — 36; The World Cup kicks off in Qatar — 40; The U.S. World Cup Soccer Team begins play — 43; Florida TaxWatch’s Annual Meeting begins — 52; ‘Willow’ premieres on Disney+ — 52; McCarthy’s ‘Stella Maris’ releases — 55; ‘Avatar 2’ premieres — 65; final Broadway performance of ‘The Music Man’ with Hugh Jackman — 81; Bruce Springsteen launches his 2023 tour in Tampa — 112; ‘Ant Man and the Wasp: Quantumania’ premieres — 128; final performance of ‘Phantom of the Opera’ on Broadway — 129; 2023 Legislative Session convenes — 146; ‘John Wick: Chapter 4′ premieres — 163; American Association of Political Consultants Pollies ’23 conference begins — 188; 2023 Session Sine Die — 205; ‘Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3’ premieres — 205; ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ premieres — 233; Christopher Nolan’s ‘Oppenheimer’ premieres — 282; ‘Dune: Part Two’ premieres — 387; ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ Part 2 premieres — 534; ‘Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes’ premieres — 590; Opening Ceremony of the 2024 Olympic Games — 653; ‘Thunderbolts’ premieres — 653; ‘Blade’ reboot premieres — 695; ‘Deadpool 3’ premieres — 758; ‘Fantastic Four’ reboot premieres — 856; ‘Avengers: The Kang Dynasty’ premieres — 933. ‘Avengers: Secret Wars’ premieres — 1,122.

Sunburn is authored and assembled by Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, Daniel Dean, Renzo Downey, Jacob Ogles, and Drew Wilson.

The post Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics — 10.12.22 appeared first on Florida Politics – Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government..