It’s TD # 4 Now, Will Be TS Debby Soon

That area of disturbed weather we’ve been watching all week is now official Tropical Depression # 4.  At 5 am Saturday, TD # 4 was over Cuba and about 195 miles south-southeast of Key West.  Maximum sustained winds were 30 miles per hour, and TD # 4 was moving west-northwest at 16 miles per hour.

A tropical storm warning is in effect on the Gulf coast from Cape Sable to Yankeetown and for the Dry Tortugas.  There’s a tropical storm watch for the Keys south of Channel 5.  The watch for the rest of the Keys has been dropped.

There’s now a hurricane watch from Yankeetown to the Aucilla River along the northern Gulf coast.  This is because what’s now TD # 4 could strengthen into a very strong tropical storm or even a minimal hurricane before reaching the coast, probably in or near the Big Bend region, early on Monday morning.

For South Florida, we can expect periods of heavy rain, potential flooding, gusty winds, and possibly an isolated tornado in the western regions this weekend.  Tropical moisture will linger into the early part of the workweek, so additional heavy rain and localized flooding are possible.

Saturday features breezy conditions, plenty of daytime showers, and evening storms as South Florida sees the closest approach to Potential TD # 4. Heavy rain and localized flooding are possible. Look for some coastal flooding along the Gulf Coast and in the Keys, and expect an increasing risk of dangerous rip currents at the Gulf beaches.  Highs on Saturday will be mostly in the sticky upper 80s.

Sunday will still see breezy conditions and periods of showers and storms from a strengthening depression or tropical storm.  Heavy rain and localized flooding are expected.  Sunday’s highs will be mostly in the low 90s in the East Coast metro area and in the upper 80s along the Gulf Coast and in the Keys.

Monday will remain unsettled, with plenty of clouds, showers, and storms as tropical moisture lingers over much of Florida.  Monday’s highs will be in the low 90s in the East Coast metro area and near 90 degrees along the Gulf Coast and in the Keys.

Tuesday will feature a mix of sun and clouds in the morning and mainly afternoon and early evening showers and storms.  Tuesday’s highs will be in the low 90s.

Wednesday’s forecast calls for an August mix of hot sun, showers, and storms on the mainland.  Look for clouds and showers in the Keys.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the low 90s right at the coasts and in the Keys and in the mid-90s elsewhere in South Florida.

The big story in the tropics is the disturbance that became Potential Tropical Depression # 4 on Friday.  At 5 pm on Friday, Potential TD # 4 was over central  Cuba and about 315 miles southeast of Key West.  At that time, Potential TD # 4 was moving west-northwest at 16 miles per hour and had maximum sustained winds of 30 miles per hour.  Strengthening is expected after the system enters the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday morning, and we could see a tropical storm by the evening.  The forecast track shows this system moving off the Florida Gulf coast on Saturday and Sunday, coming ashore on Sunday evening, most likely between the Tampa Bay area and the eastern part of the Florida panhandle.  Once it tracks across northern Florida, the system is forecast to skirt the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas early next week.

There is a tropical storm warning for the Florida Gulf coast from Cape Sable to Boca Grande as of 5 pm on Friday.  At that time, there was a tropical storm watch in the Keys from Card Sound to the Dry Tortugas and on the Gulf coast from Boca Grande northward to the Suwannee River.  Watch and warning areas are likely to be extended.

In South Florida, we can expect heavy and potentially flooding rain and gusty winds this weekend.  If your home is in a low-lying area, prepare for possible flooding.  Be sure to secure lawn furniture and other items that could be lifted up in a strong wind gust.  There is no indication at this time that we will need to put up shutters.  Don’t attempt to drive in flooded areas and avoid walking in flood waters.