WASHINGTON — Nearly 30 million Americans by Thursday had cast their ballots ahead of Election Day, with 13 million choosing to vote in person at early voting centers and another 17 million submitting mail-in ballots, according to data from the University of Florida’s election lab.
The total number of early votes is expected to increase significantly in the days leading up to Election Day on Nov. 5.
Voters will determine whether Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris or Republican candidate Donald Trump occupies the Oval Office for the next four years. On the national level, they’ll decide which political party controls the U.S. House and U.S. Senate for the next two years.
The nonpartisan Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics says the presidential race is still very much up for grabs, rating the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin as toss-ups.
Early voting is higher in several of those purple states than some of their counterparts, according to data from the University of Florida’s election lab.
Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia have each received at least 1.2 million early ballots, while California, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas have all received at least 2 million early votes.
The University of Florida data show that among states that disclose party breakdowns, Democrats have cast nearly 42% of ballots while Republicans have submitted 35% and other voters have sent in about 23%.
U.S. House control up in the air
Sabato’s Crystal Ball projects that Republicans are at least slightly favored to win 212 House seats, with Democrats holding onto at least 209 seats in that chamber. Another 14 races are rated as toss-ups, meaning control of the chamber is still far from decided.
“Overall, our ratings show just 7 Republican-held Toss-ups and 7 Democratic-held Toss-ups, for 14 total,” Managing Editor Kyle Kondik and Associate Editor J. Miles Coleman wrote in the latest update, released Thursday morning.
“Splitting the Toss-ups down the middle would produce a 219-216 Republican House, so the ratings technically have the Republicans very narrowly ahead — but neither side is favored in the race for the House majority, even at this late stage,” they wrote.
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairwoman Suzan DelBene of Washington state told reporters Thursday the organization has several voter protection efforts underway to ensure Americans who want to vote have an opportunity to do so.
Those efforts won’t stop when the polls close on Election Day, but will continue as absentee ballots are counted, she said in a virtual meeting with the Regional Reporters Association.
“So, this is obviously a priority for us, and some of these races are very, very close, so we want to make sure we’re there to help make sure ballots are counted across the country,” DelBene said.
Control of the House might not be announced on election night or for several days afterward. It took more than a week after the 2022 midterm elections before The Associated Press called control for the GOP.
U.S. Senate tilts toward GOP
The Senate is leaning slightly toward Republican control, with GOP candidates on track to pick up seats in West Virginia and Montana.
Sabato’s has, however, moved Nebraska’s rating from likely Republican to leans Republican, “as the Republican cavalry has had to ride in to help” incumbent GOP Sen. Deb Fischer maintain her seat against independent challenger Dan Osborn.
“Unlike Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Rick Scott (R-FL), the only other two GOP incumbents in races that we rate as something other than Safe Republican, Fischer has, arguably, never had to run in a legitimately competitive statewide general election,” Kondik and Coleman wrote.
Early in-person voting as well as who is eligible for mail-in ballots is determined by each state, meaning when and where voters can cast early ballots varies considerably.
All states are required to host in-person voting on Election Day, scheduled for Nov. 5. More information about voting can be found here.
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