AccuWeather® Global Weather Center – Oct. 23, 2025 – Tropical Storm Melissa is forecast to rapidly intensify over the weekend, bringing life-threatening rainfall and destructive winds to parts of Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, and Cuba.
AccuWeather® hurricane experts now predict Melissa to make landfall in Cuba as a major hurricane next week, before crossing the island, moving into the Bahamas, then bringing rough surf and beach erosion issues to the U.S. East Coast next week.
“The very warm waters and slow movement of this storm are a recipe for disaster. The longer Melissa spends over the warm waters of the Caribbean, the more time it has to intensify as the wind shear eases. People in Cuba need to be prepared for the increasing threat of a major hurricane landfall next week. AccuWeather issues 7-day hurricane forecast tracks to provide people and businesses with more time to prepare,” AccuWeather® Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. “The exceptionally warm waters, reaching hundreds of feet deep, will act like jet fuel — providing extra energy for the storm. The warmest water in the Atlantic basin is in the central Caribbean, in the direct path of this storm. Rapid intensification into a Category 5 hurricane is not out of the question.”
As Melissa moves northward, AccuWeather® hurricane experts say significant life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flooding and damaging winds are likely in Jamaica, Cuba, and southern Hispaniola.
Rainfall amounts of 8-16 inches can occur across much of southern Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, and Jamaica, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 30 inches.
Wind gusts of 60-80 mph can occur in western Haiti, central Cuba, and the Bahamas. Destructive wind gusts of 120-140 mph can occur across central Cuba and parts of Jamaica, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ on land of 150 mph as Melissa makes landfall next week.
Storm surge of 1-3 feet is expected along coastal stretches of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. A damaging storm surge of 3-6 feet is forecast along southwest-facing and 6-10 feet for southeast-facing beaches in Jamaica, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 15 feet.
“A foot of rainfall or more could cause catastrophic flooding across parts of Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic. People in the path of this storm need to prepare for the risk of catastrophic impacts,” DaSilva warned. “Torrential rainfall from Melissa could trigger life-threatening flooding, mudslides near steep terrain, and even roads and bridges being washed away. Powerful winds could topple trees, damage buildings, and cause widespread power and communication outages.”
Cuba has been hit hard by several major hurricanes in recent years, including Category 3 Hurricane Rafael in November 2024, Category 3 Hurricane Ian in September 2022, and Category 5 Hurricane Irma in September 2017.
At this time, AccuWeather® hurricane experts say the risk of direct rain and wind impacts from Melissa reaching the U.S. next week is low, but it cannot be ruled out.
“The timing and strength of a dip in the jet stream over the eastern U.S. next week will help determine the path that Melissa takes through the Caribbean and into the Atlantic,” DaSilva explained. “At this time, the odds of direct rain and wind impacts from Melissa reaching the East Coast are low. However, there are scenarios that could bring Melissa closer to Florida. The farther west Melissa moves in the Caribbean, the closer it could eventually move toward the U.S.”
AccuWeather® hurricane experts say coastal hazards are expected next week from South Florida to the Northeast.
“Rough surf, beach erosion, and coastal flooding issues are likely along much of the East Coast next week, regardless of how close the storm gets to the U.S.,” DaSilva said. “Melissa will be a powerful storm generating huge waves. The impacts will be felt at beaches hundreds of miles away. This has been a challenging year for beach erosion along the East Coast. Melissa could wash away tons of sand from beaches already hit hard by storms that passed well offshore earlier this year.”
- AccuWeather® hurricane experts have expanded the area facing an extreme risk to lives and property to parts of Cuba, as well as parts of Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and all of Jamaica.
- Due to widespread life-threatening flooding rain, mudslides and strong winds, Melissa is a 4 for the western Caribbean and a 1 for Puerto Rico on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes.
Disclaimer
The information contained in South Florida Reporter is for general information purposes only.
The South Florida Reporter assumes no responsibility for errors or omissions in the contents of the Service.
In no event shall the South Florida Reporter be liable for any special, direct, indirect, consequential, or incidental damages or any damages whatsoever, whether in an action of contract, negligence or other tort, arising out of or in connection with the use of the Service or the contents of the Service. The Company reserves the right to make additions, deletions, or modifications to the contents of the Service at any time without prior notice.
The Company does not warrant that the Service is free of viruses or other harmful components
