Iowa Is an 89% Match with U.S. Demographics

By Adam McCann, WalletHub Financial Writer

How Closely Does Iowa Resemble the U.S.? Our data set of 22 key measures includes sociodemographic, economic, educational and religious metrics as well as public stances on certain issues.

Key Findings

•  The Overall Resemblance Index for Iowa is 89.
  • Sociodemographics: 84
  • Economics: 89
  • Education: 92
  • Religion: 87
  • Public Opinion: 91
• 63.6% of Iowa caucus winners have won the Democratic Party nomination and 44.4% the Republican Party nomination. The Iowa caucuses, therefore, are a much better predictor of advancement for Democrats than for Republicans.
• Iowa least resembles the U.S. in terms of race, with a 50.00 percent difference; religious composition, with a 74.52 percent difference; wealth gap, with a 76.41 percent difference; and employment by industry, with an 80.30 percent difference.
• Iowa most resembles the U.S. in terms of mean work hours, with a 99.48 percent similarity; unemployment rate, with a 99.10 percent similarity; school enrollment, with a 99.02 percent similarity; and importance of religion in one’s life, with a 99.00 percent similarity.

Since the 1970s, Iowa has been the first state to put presidential hopefuls to the test each election cycle. Iowa’s role, in effect, is to weed out the ineffective candidates, but it does not guarantee who will win the party nomination.

Although Iowa has gone to great lengths to secure its position as the first primary-election state, its caucuses don’t actually have that good of a track record predicting election results. Dating back to 1976, 63.6% of Democratic winners in Iowa have received their party’s nomination, but only 44.4% of Republicans have. In addition, only 18.2% of Democrats and 11.1% of Republicans who have raced in Iowa have also been elected president.

Main Findings

100% for a particular metric fully matches the national value.

In-Depth Look at How Well Iowa Voters Represent the U.S.

General Demographics

In many ways, Iowa is highly representative of the U.S. as a whole, and is nearly identical (96% to 99% similarity) when it comes to gender, age, homeownership and family composition. Where it’s not so similar, though, is its racial makeup. Iowa has a significantly higher percentage of white residents than the country as a whole, and lower percentages of residents of other races, such as African American or latino.

When it comes to education, Iowans are slightly more educated than the average American, with larger shares of people with advanced college degrees and a smaller percentage of people who didn’t finish high school.

Religiously, Iowa is very similar to the rest of the U.S., though there is a higher share of Mainline Protestant Christians and slightly lower shares of Evangelical Protestants and Catholics.

Economic Factors

Iowa’s economic environment is in line with the U.S. overall when it comes to factors like employment, the poverty rate, and annual income. There is one stat that stands out for its relatively large difference, though, and that’s the wealth gap, or the difference between the mean household income of the richest fifth of the population and the poorest. This gap is actually around 4% lower in Iowa than in the U.S. overall, which means that its residents are on a slightly more equitable footing.

Political Opinions

Iowa is a swing state, and 42% of Iowans identify as Republicans while 42% identify as Democrats, with the remainder being independent. While it’s split evenly between the two major parties, Iowa does skew slightly more Republican than the U.S. as a whole.

When it comes to hot-button issues in the 2024 election, Iowans are less likely to say abortion should be legal and less likely to support increased gun restrictions compared to the country overall.

About the Iowa Caucus

Iowa is known for taking the presidential voting process very seriously. Unlike their primary-election counterparts, Iowa-caucus voters don’t simply show up at the polls and choose their favorite candidates. Their system includes an additional, unusual component: a community discussion that takes place in each of the state’s 1,681 precincts before either party’s registered constituents finally cast their ballots. The voting itself happens in one evening, after a yearlong process of meeting the contestants, arguing about them and enduring the bright glare of the media spotlight.

Over the years, this unique operation has attracted praise for exemplifying “grassroots democracy” as well as condemnation for perpetuating what many consider an outdated, unrepresentative procedure.

Note: The above chart was generated using data from 1976 for Democratic party nominees and Republican party nominees. We took into account only races in which at least two candidates were on the ballot.

Detailed Findings

Source: WalletHub