Shane Goldmacher and Ruth Igielnik
Vice President Kamala Harris has stormed into contention in the fast-growing and diverse states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, not long after Donald J. Trump had seemed on the verge of running away with those states when President Biden was still the Democratic nominee. 
The margins of error for the Arizona, Nevada and Georgia polls are plus or minus 4.4 points. For North Carolina, it is plus or minus 4.2 points. By Lily Boyce and Andrew Park
The new polls from The New York Times and Siena College show how quickly Ms. Harris has reshaped the terrain of 2024 and thrust the Sun Belt back to the center of the battleground-state map.
Ms. Harris is now leading Mr. Trump among likely voters in Arizona, 50 percent to 45 percent, and has even edged ahead of Mr. Trump in North Carolina — a state Mr. Trump won four years ago — while narrowing his lead significantly in Georgia and Nevada.
Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris are tied at 48 percent across an average of the four Sun Belt states in surveys conducted Aug. 8 to 15.
That marks a significant improvement for Democrats compared with May, when Mr. Trump led Mr. Biden 50 percent to 41 percent across Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in the previous set of Times/Siena Sun Belt polls, which did not include North Carolina.
[A dead heat in these four states is not great news for Donald Trump, and it represents a huge shift from earlier in the cycle, Nate Cohn writes.]
The new polls provide more evidence that Ms. Harris is successfully consolidating parts of the Democratic base that had been waffling over supporting Mr. Biden for months, particularly younger, nonwhite and female voters.
Last week, Times/Siena polling showed that Ms. Harris had pulled ahead of Mr. Trump by a narrow margin in the three northern battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Those states are generally considered the linchpin of any Democratic path to the White House. The Sun Belt represents an essential set of states for Mr. Trump while offering a potential second route for Ms. Harris to the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win.
In the new surveys, Mr. Trump is ahead in Georgia 50 percent to 46 percent, and, in Nevada, he has 48 percent compared to 47 percent for Ms. Harris. She has 49 percent of likely voters to Mr. Trump’s 47 percent in North Carolina, the only one of the seven core battleground states that he carried in 2020.
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