El Niño Brings Early End to U.S. Threats for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

The risk of additional tropical impacts to the United States is over for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, as El Niño brings an early end to activity across the basin, AccuWeather hurricane experts say. This follows a season that, despite being quieter than average in number of storms, brought flooding rains, repeated Gulf Coast landfalls and Hurricane Isaias’ destructive Category 3 strike on Florida.

This announcement comes three weeks before the Atlantic hurricane season officially ends on Nov. 30. AccuWeather hurricane experts do say tropical storms could develop elsewhere in the Atlantic basin, which will stay out to sea if a storm does form.

“The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has been anything but typical, and El Niño has played a significant role in limiting tropical activity across the Atlantic. While tropical storms can still develop this late in the season, the weather patterns we’re seeing give us confidence that the United States will avoid additional direct tropical impacts this year. It’s an unusually quiet conclusion to a season that broke a 121-year-old hurricane record,” said AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva.

Four storms impacted the U.S., falling within the range of three to five direct U.S. impacts AccuWeather first predicted back in March.

Four Storms Brought Flooding, Wind Damage and Coastal Impacts to the U.S.

• Tropical Storm Arthur: Flooding rain began impacting Texas June 14, as the system developed, ahead of its June 17 landfall. Flooding later spread across Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama, with 31.56 inches of rain measured in Cottonport, Louisiana. AccuWeather estimated $4 to $6 billion in total damage and economic loss.
• Tropical Storm Bertha: Dangerous surf and coastal flooding began affecting Alabama July 21, followed by landfalls in Louisiana July 22 and near the Texas-Louisiana border July 23. Storm surge flooded roads and submerged vehicles on Dauphin Island, Alabama.
• Tropical Storm Edouard: Rain began spreading along Louisiana’s coast and into eastern Texas Aug. 30, ahead of its Sept. 1 landfall in southwestern Louisiana. Damaging winds knocked down trees and power lines around Beaumont, Texas, while nearly 20 inches of rain triggered a flash flood emergency in Kountze Sept. 2. AccuWeather’s preliminary estimate put total damage and economic loss at $2 to $4 billion.
• Hurricane Isaias: Destructive winds, storm surge and flooding struck the Florida Panhandle Oct. 9, with damaging winds spreading inland across the Southeast. Isaias became the latest first hurricane of an Atlantic season on record, breaking a mark set in 1905. It reached Category 3 strength over the Gulf before making landfall near Destin, Florida as a Category 2 hurricane. AccuWeather preliminarily estimated $16 to $20 billion in total damage and economic loss.

The season’s overall activity also fell within AccuWeather’s late-September forecast. As of early November, the Atlantic had produced 10 named storms and one hurricane, compared with that updated forecast of 8-11 named storms and 0-2 hurricanes. Isaias was the only storm to reach hurricane strength.

How El Niño Helped Suppress Atlantic Activity

Strong and strengthening El Niño conditions played a major role in limiting Atlantic tropical development this season. Although El Niño develops in the Pacific Ocean, it can influence atmospheric conditions thousands of miles away, including winds over the Atlantic.

El Niño typically increases windshear, which can disrupt the thunderstorms that tropical systems need to organize and intensify. Those less favorable conditions contributed to the unusually low number of Atlantic hurricanes this year.

Very warm Gulf waters still provided opportunities for storms to develop closer to the U.S. coastline. Isaias found a period of lower wind shear and abundant moisture over warm water, allowing it to become the season’s first and only hurricane despite the broader pattern suppressing activity.

A Much Busier Hurricane Season in the Pacific

While El Niño helped suppress Atlantic activity, warmer Pacific waters helped support a much busier eastern and central Pacific hurricane season.

As of Nov. 3, those basins had produced 24 named storms and 13 hurricanes, compared with 10 named storms and one hurricane in the Atlantic. With 24 named storms to date, the 2026 season is already tied for third-most on record in the eastern and central Pacific. Fueled in part by El Niño, this historic season still has time to climb the rankings before hurricane season ends Nov. 30.

The Pacific season also brought significant impacts. Hurricane Lala, Lowell and Nolo affected Hawaii, while Polo, Rachel and Simon affected Mexico and later sent tropical moisture into the southwestern United States.

The eastern and central Pacific also set a seasonal record for Accumulated Cyclone Energy, a measure of storms’ strength and duration. It reached 354.1 through Nov. 2, surpassing the previous full-season record of 318.1 set in 2018.