From backyard football to the drive to Thanksgiving dinner, plans across the Gulf Coast and Southeast may need a rain backup. Rain is possible during Thanksgiving week, with a few thunderstorms capable of bringing heavier rainfall. Some areas could also see rain and cooler conditions on Thanksgiving Day itself.
AccuWeather expert meteorologist Chad Merrill notes that a forecast including rain doesn’t automatically mean the whole day is a washout, as timing matters. A downpour during the drive or an outdoor gathering could change plans, while rain overnight may barely interrupt them. Forecasters are closely monitoring whether a southern storm could track toward the Northeast around Thanksgiving or remain close to the Southeast coast.
While the South prepares for potential wet weather, a strengthening El Niño is contributing to exceptional warmth across the central United States. More than two dozen U.S. cities—including Dallas, Houston, Oklahoma City, and St. Louis—recorded their warmest start to meteorological fall from September 1 through November 5. AccuWeather expert meteorologist Alyssa Glenny explains that a persistent southward dip in the jet stream across the West and a northward bend from the Mississippi Valley to the Appalachians helped funnel warm air into the central states. South-southwest breezes sustained the warmth and limited overnight cooling. This domestic heat mirrors global milestones, as October finished as the warmest October ever measured worldwide, surpassing the previous record set in 2023.
In stark contrast, a developing storm could bring the season’s first snow to parts of the Great Lakes and Northeast late this week as the coldest air of the season sweeps across the East. A southward dip in the jet stream will allow colder Canadian air to sweep in, organizing a storm that will move east from the Great Lakes. This system could bring wet snow mixed with rain from the Appalachians into the interior Northeast Thursday into Friday night. Snow accumulation is most likely at higher elevations, especially in the mountains of West Virginia. Lower elevations may see snowflakes mix in with rain without accumulating, but windy conditions from Thursday through Saturday will drive RealFeel temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below actual air temperatures.
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