Offshore Nor’easter Strengthens into Subtropical Storm Josephine, Threatening Atlantic Canada

A nor’easter that has been sitting off the East Coast of the United States for the last few days is now Subtropical Storm Josephine. The newly named storm will continue to bring gusty winds, coastal flooding and beach erosion to the mid-Atlantic coast and southeast New England. These impacts are expected to expand northeastward into Atlantic Canada through Friday. A narrow band of heavy rain is also expected to impact the immediate coast from far southeast Massachusetts through Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

The window for Josephine to strengthen will close quickly as it encounters cooler water in the North Atlantic, but there is a small opportunity for intensification into Thursday and for it to strengthen into a hurricane before it loses any tropical characteristics.

What to Expect from Josephine

Josephine continues to produce strong winds, rough surf, coastal flooding and significant beach erosion over the mid-Atlantic and into southeast New England. The most significant coastal impacts have been from the Outer Banks of North Carolina and the Tidewater of Virginia, and these will lessen as the storm moves eastward across the North Atlantic Ocean over the next couple of days. The impact from high tides in the mid-Atlantic will gradually lessen through the rest of the week.

AccuWeather hurricane experts currently do not expect the coastal flooding from Josephine to be as impactful along the New Jersey and southern New England coastlines when compared to the prior nor’easter in late September. There can still be minor flooding and beach erosion in this area.

As Josephine moves northeastward across the Atlantic, it will brush the southeast New England coast with rain and gusty winds. This rain and wind will expand into Nova Scotia and Newfoundland through Friday. There can even be some wet snow across Newfoundland on Friday as the center of Josephine passes well to the southeast of Atlantic Canada.

Wind Gusts Could Reach 75 MPH

Josephine will bring a large swath of tropical-storm-force winds from coastal Nova Scotia through southern Newfoundland. Most of the strongest winds will be along the coastline, but some of these stronger wind gusts can extend into interior portions of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, as well.

Gusts of 40-60 mph will clip Atlantic Canada with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™of 75 mph. These wind gusts can bring down some trees and lead to localized power outages

Localized Flooding Concerns in U.S. and Into Parts of Canada

Josephine is expected to cause some localized flooding issues, with a swath of 1-2 inches of rain expected to impact Nantucket and Cape Cod, through parts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, into Saturday. A small area of 2-4 inches is expected along the coast of southeastern Nova Scotia with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 6 inches.

Due to heavy rain, gusty winds and storm surge, Josephine is a less than one on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in the United States and Canada.

AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes

In contrast to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which classifies storms by wind speed only, the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale is based on a broad range of important factors. In order to better communicate a more comprehensive representation of the potential impact of a storm to lives and livelihoods, the scale covers not only wind speed but also flooding rain, storm surge and economic damage and loss.