Triple Tropical Threat: Hurricane Isaias Targets Gulf Coast as Pacific Storms Eye the Southwest

A triple play of tropical threats will impact the U.S. this weekend as storms in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins slam the U.S.

In the Gulf, Hurricane Isaias is the latest first-forming hurricane in the Atlantic Basin among seasons that produced at least one hurricane, breaking the previous record set in 1905 by approximately 3.5 hours.

If Isaias makes landfall as a hurricane as forecast, it will mark exactly two years to the day since Hurricane Milton struck Florida on Oct. 9, 2024. Isaias would be the first hurricane to make landfall in the United States since Milton in the Atlantic Basin.

“We’ve gone from a historic stretch without a hurricane to a potentially destructive storm threatening the Gulf Coast in a matter of days,” said AccuWeather expert meteorologist Dan Pydynowski. “El Niño has helped suppress hurricane activity across the Atlantic this season, but it hasn’t eliminated the threat. Even in an unusually quiet season, it only takes one hurricane to have devastating consequences for communities in its path.”

The Category 1 hurricane is forecast to strengthen into a Category 2 before making landfall just east of Mobile Bay, Alabama, Friday night. AccuWeather hurricane experts say Isaias could become a major hurricane before reaching the coast, bringing life-threatening storm surge, damaging winds, flooding rainfall tornadoes and widespread power outages.

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Isaias is rated a 2 on the AccuWeather Real Impact™ Scale for Hurricanes in the United States, due to flooding rainfall, damaging winds and life-threatening storm surge.

The storm also poses a significant tornado threat across southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and southwestern Georgia Friday through Saturday night, with the risk shifting into the Carolinas and eastern Tennessee Sunday.

Heavy rain could spread into the Ohio Valley, mid-Atlantic and southern New England early next week, with flash flooding and mudslides possible in the Appalachians.

What AccuWeather Expert Meteorologists Are Tracking

• Storm surge: Life-threatening surge of 6-10 feet near landfall, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 15 feet Friday-Saturday morning
• Damaging winds: Gusts of 100-110 mph near landfall, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 120 mph Friday through Sunday
• Flooding rainfall: 8-12 inches across southern Alabama and the far western Florida Panhandle, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 25 inches Friday evening-early Saturday

Pair of Tropical Cyclones in the Pacific Will Bring Flooding Rain, Dangerous Winds Across the Southwest

A pair of tropical cyclones in the Pacific will bring the risk for flooding rain and damaging winds from southern California to Colorado in the coming days. This comes after an especially active September in the region, where some areas that could be impacted by these two storms received more than double the historical average for the month.

Tropical Storm Rachel is currently off the coast of Baja California. AccuWeather experts forecast the storm will bring widespread rain beginning early Sunday morning across the Baja Peninsula, Southern California and Arizona. Significant impacts could be experienced in San Diego and Phoenix.

A widespread swath of 1-2 inches of rain can occur from Baja California to central Utah. Heavier rainfall of 2-4 inches can occur where the storm tracks.

A pocket of 4-8 inches of rain is forecast near northwest Arizona, near Flagstaff where the 3.5 inches of rain in September was nearly double the (1.84 inches) historical average.

The storm has an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 12 inches. Heavy rain in these areas can cause rapid flash flooding by rapidly funneling water into narrow canyons and send dangerous floodwaters downstream, leaving hikers and campers often vulnerable.

“Parts of the southwest experienced their wettest September on record, and we cannot under-communicate the impacts repeated rainfall has on flash flooding risks. Water-logged land significantly raises flash flooding risks,” said AccuWeather expert meteorologist Tyler Roys. “Tropical Storm Rachel, and Hurricane Simon are two distinctly different storms and will bring impacts to different parts of the southwest, but they both continue a very wet pattern.”

Rachel could also bring widespread winds of 40-60 mph as far north as central Wyoming. There is an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 90 mph.

Currently located off the western coast of Mexico in the Pacific, Tropical Storm Simon is forecast to strengthen into a major category hurricane before making two direct landfalls in Mexico. Its most significant impacts will be felt in Mexico, where the storm is expected to make two landfalls this weekend.

Rainfall is expected to stretch north into western Texas, New Mexico and Colorado late Monday.

AccuWeather is forecasting widespread rain of 1-2 inches in most spots of the U.S. impact region.

Parts of this region, including Albuquerque, New Mexico, set all-time rainfall records last month.