If you think we’ve seen more tropical storms and hurricanes in recent years, you’re right. Meteorologists at NOAA are acknowledging that in the latest update of what we can expect during a “typical” Atlantic hurricane season. At the end of each decade, they revise what are called climate normals to incorporate the most recent 30 years of data. Since we’re now using hurricane and tropical storm data from 1991 through 2020, that typical season would include:
- 14 named storms (total tropical storms and hurricanes)
- 7 hurricanes (categories 1 through 5)
- 3 major hurricanes (category 3 and above)
That’s in contrast to the old numbers of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 to 3 major hurricanes in a “typical” Atlantic season. The new numbers indicate that we’re not out of the more active hurricane cycle that we’ve been in since 1995.
Speaking of numbers, here are the maximum sustained wind speeds associated with Atlantic tropical systems:
- tropical storm 39 through 73 mph
- category 1 hurricane 74 through 95 mph
- category 2 hurricane 96 through 110 mph
- category 3 hurricane 111 through 129 mph
- category 4 hurricane 130 through 156 mph
- category 5 hurricane 157 mph and above
There’s also a new date to remember: May 15. That’s when the National Hurricane Center will begin their daily Tropical Weather Outlook – a graphic and text summary of what’s happening in the tropical Atlantic now and in the next 2 or 5 days. You can find it on their homepage through November 30: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
That’s another change related to our changing hurricane climatology. While the Atlantic hurricane season “officially” begins on June 1 each year, we’ve seen several recent seasons (including 2020) that had at least one tropical system form earlier. That’s why the National Hurricane Center is issuing the Tropical Weather Outlook a couple of weeks before June 1 – and it’s another reminder that our new hurricane reality includes longer and more active hurricane seasons.
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