Historic Atlantic Lull: 2026 Threatens First Hurricane-Free Season Since 1914, but Forecasters Eye Developing Gulf Threat

As the calendar flips to October, there still has not been a hurricane in the Atlantic Basin in 2026, a feat even more unlikely given current technology used to monitor storms.

AccuWeather hurricane experts believe homegrown storms provide the highest chance for a U.S. impact this fall and has identified a region in the Bay of Campeche as a spot where development could occur late next week. If development occurs in this area, the general pattern would support movement toward the northern Gulf Coast.

“During El Niño the Gulf is often a likely place to grow a significant storm, and that hasn’t changed. Right now, water temperatures are incredibly warm and ripe for producing storms, but wind shear is also quite strong and remains the biggest factor impeding development,” said hurricane expert Nicholas Arman.

No Hurricanes Could Form For the First Time in More Than a Century

For the first time, AccuWeather forecasted the possibility of zero hurricanes forming this season in its most recent Atlantic Hurricane Forecast update. If no hurricanes form, it will be the first time since 1914, and only the third time in recorded history.

The lack of hurricanes is even more remarkable when viewed through the lens of modern hurricane observation technology.

Beginning in 1966, routine satellite monitoring dramatically improved scientists’ ability to detect tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic. From 1900-1965, the Atlantic averaged just over 9 tropical storms and hurricanes per year, compared with just more than 13 per year since 1966 when daily tracking became modernized.

“Earlier records require additional context,” said hurricane expert Alex DaSilva. “Before satellites, tropical cyclones over remote stretches of ocean could easily escape detection if they did not encounter ships, populated islands, or land. Nevertheless, historical data points to 1914 as the quietest Atlantic hurricane season on record, with only one documented tropical storm and no hurricanes.”

AccuWeather hurricane experts emphasize that the hurricane season continues through Nov. 30, and tropical development can still occur during October and November. The revised 0-2 hurricane forecast reflects both that continuing risk and the increasingly plausible historic scenario that 2026 could end with no Atlantic hurricanes at all.