Atlantic Eyes First Potential Hurricane Near Bermuda Amid Slashed Season Forecast (Video)

The Atlantic could produce its first hurricane of the season near Bermuda later this week, even as AccuWeather lowers its forecast for the total number of hurricanes expected in 2026 again.

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms near Bermuda has a medium risk of tropical development from Sept. 17-21. Interests in Bermuda should closely monitor the area over the coming days.

“If this system develops, it will likely move into an environment that is conducive for strengthening,” said AccuWeather expert meteorologist Nicholas Arman. “We cannot rule out this becoming the first hurricane of the Atlantic season should it develop. The combination of warm ocean water and favorable atmospheric conditions near Bermuda could allow the system to strengthen significantly if it becomes organized.”

AccuWeather Lowers its Hurricane Forecast Following Historically Slow first half of the Season

Despite the potential for a hurricane near Bermuda, the broader atmospheric conditions across the Atlantic continues to favor an unusually low number of hurricanes this season.

AccuWeather now forecasts 1-3 hurricanes for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, down from the previous forecast of 3-4.

“We have never gone this late into the Atlantic hurricane season without a hurricane in the satellite era,” AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva explained. “The strengthening El Niño is a major reason we are lowering our forecast again. Increasing wind shear has made it extremely difficult for storms to organize and strengthen, and we expect those conditions to become even less favorable as El Niño strengthens.”

Five named storms have developed so far this season, but none have strengthened into a hurricane. The historical average date for the first Atlantic hurricane is Aug. 11.

El Niño Putting the Brakes on Atlantic Activity

Strong El Niño conditions are already present in the Pacific, with near certainty that a super El Niño will develop by late in the hurricane season. El Niño typically increases disruptive wind shear across portions of the Atlantic, making it more difficult for tropical systems to organize and strengthen.

“The Atlantic has plenty of warm water to support tropical development, but El Niño is working against it,” said DaSilva. “If we were in a La Niña pattern with these same warm ocean temperatures, we would likely be forecasting an above-average season. Instead, stronger wind shear associated with El Niño is making it much harder for storms to organize and strengthen.”

There is historical precedent for hurricane activity shutting down early during a powerful El Niño. Neither 1982 nor 1997, two of the three Super El Niño seasons in the satellite era (1966-present), produced a new Atlantic hurricane after Sept. 14.

Warm Waters Keep U.S. Risk Alive

Despite the lower hurricane forecast, AccuWeather hurricane experts caution that people along the Gulf and Southeast coasts should not let their guard down.

“It continues to be important to closely monitor each tropical wave for the rest of this season,” DaSilva said. “Some tropical waves may remain disorganized while crossing the Atlantic, only to develop and intensify once they reach the exceptionally warm waters near the U.S., such as off the Southeast coast and Gulf of America. Warm waters close to the coast mean a storm that finds a favorable window could strengthen quickly and leave communities less time to prepare.”

The Atlantic hurricane season continues through Nov. 30, and tropical development remains possible through the fall.