Atlantic Basin Passes Climatological Peak Without a Single Hurricane in Historic Season Lull

It’s been more than 100 years since the Atlantic basin failed to produce a hurricane during the Atlantic hurricane season, but this year the basin is on track for what could be one of its quietest seasons ever.

Today, September 10 marks the official climatological peak of the season and the Atlantic still has not formed a hurricane this year. AccuWeather expert meteorologists believe there is a low probability that one forms before the end of the month.

“The possibility that the Atlantic could go through its entire busiest month without a hurricane is what makes this season truly exceptional,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. “Powerful El Niño conditions continue to generate disruptive wind shear across the basin, and we do not see a meaningful change in that pattern through the end of September.”

The latest first hurricane during the satellite era (beginning in 1966) formed on Sept. 11 in both 2002 and 2013. If a hurricane forms this year it will set a new record.

No Hurricanes This Year Would Make History

Twice in recorded history has the basin finished a season without producing a single hurricane, in 1907 and 1914, but it’s never happened during the more thorough satellite era , where technology began allowing meteorologists to better spot and track storms away from land.

This year, five named storms have formed, but persistent wind shear, dry air and repeated plumes of Saharan dust have prevented any from reaching hurricane strength.

The last Atlantic season without a September hurricane came in 1994. Tropical Storms Debby and Ernesto formed that September, but neither reached hurricane strength. However, 1994 had already produced Hurricane Chris in August, and hurricanes Florence and Gordon later formed in November, bringing the season total to three.

What AccuWeather Forecasts Through the End of the Hurricane Season

The Atlantic hurricane season continues through Nov. 30. If a hurricane does not develop in September, any opportunity for the season’s first hurricane would be in October or November, when tropical activity typically begins to decline. Since 1966, only about 24 percent of all hurricanes have historically developed after September; that number shrinks to 19 percent in El Niño years.

“Typically one of the biggest things deterring tropical development in the Atlantic late in the year is increasing wind shear across the basin. The jet stream becomes much more active, which leads to large dips in the jet stream further south across the basin, increasing wind shear. Early season cold fronts also tend to cool down the waters, along with decreasing solar energy as the sun shifts into the southern hemisphere. These make it harder for storms to develop and grow in the main development region,” said AccuWeather expert meteorologist Nicholas Arman.

This year, the increasing El Niño-driven wind shear is expected to make the Atlantic even less conducive for development through the remainder of the season. Tropical storms and tropical rainstorms can still form and produce flooding rainfall, damaging wind gusts, rough surf and significant disruptions, even if they do not reach hurricane strength.