Rare Double Tropical Threat Targets Hawaii With Heavy Rain, High Surf, and Strong Winds

Two different tropical systems could produce tropical storms or rare hurricanes near Hawaii, an unusual double threat that could bring flooding rain, dangerous surf, and damaging winds over the next couple of weekends, according to AccuWeather hurricane experts.

“When a tropical system approaches Hawaii, you can’t judge the threat based only on whether the center crosses an island or what category the storm reaches,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. “Tropical moisture, rough surf and other impacts can extend well away from the center. A storm that passes nearby can still create dangerous conditions, which is why preparation and awareness are important even without a direct landfall.”

AccuWeather hurricane experts are monitoring two areas of tropical development from Aug. 11 through 13; an area of high-risk southeast of Hawaii and a medium-risk area farther east, which wouldn’t impact the islands until late next week.

“The high-risk area is the one we’re most concerned about. It is the most immediate threat and most likely to impact Hawaii,” DaSilva added. “If the medium-risk area is going to impact land, it won’t happen until later next week, and there is a possibility it doesn’t develop at all if it gets absorbed into the high-risk area ahead of it.”

The First Threat to Hawaii and the Scenarios Surrounding the Forecast

There are multiple scenarios as the potential development from the high-risk area approaches the islands later this week.

• Northern track: Cooler waters would limit strengthening and reduce impacts Hawaii
• Southern track: Warmer water would favor a stronger Tropical Rainstorm, with the potential to become a hurricane and bring greater impacts to the islands

“What stands out with this system is how much the environment can change over a relatively short distance,” DaSilva said. “Small shifts in the track could make a meaningful difference in how much the storm strengthens and what Hawaii ultimately experiences. People across the islands should keep checking the forecast as we get a clearer picture of where this system is headed.”

Hurricanes Near Hawaii are Rare

Only two hurricanes have made landfall in Hawaii since the 1950s: Dot in 1959 and Iniki in 1992; both came ashore on the island of Kauai. But storms do not need to make landfall cause major impacts.

Hurricane Hone passed about 50 miles south of the Big Island in 2024 and brought more than 28 inches of rain, while Lane remained offshore in 2018 and produced nearly 58 inches, which at the time set a U.S. record.

Also Being Monitored: Atlantic Tropical Development

AccuWeather hurricane experts are also monitoring two areas for tropical development in the Atlantic. There is a high-risk area of development in the open Atlantic west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands Aug. 12-15. There is also a low-risk area of development off the East Coast Aug. 11-12; any development in this area would not directly impact the United States or Bermuda. AccuWeather experts say a third region they were previously tracking has moved into a hostile environment and no longer presents risk for tropical development.