

It looks increasingly likely that Hurricane Melissa will be a disaster of historic proportions for Jamaica and Haiti. Melissa is undergoing rapid intensification and is forecast to become a major hurricane on Sunday. Flooding and mudslides from several days of heavy rain will be made worse by major wind damage and storm surge in Jamaica and Hispaniola. Because steering currents have been weak and will be through Monday, heavy rain and destructive winds will be over the warning areas for extended periods of time. Similar hazards are expected in eastern Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday, but Melissa will have weakened a bit from interaction with land, and its forward speed will increase.
Melissa was located about 130 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica and 250 miles west-southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti early Saturday evening. Maximum sustained winds were 90 miles per hour at that time, and Melissa was moving west at 3 miles per hour. There is a hurricane warning for Jamaica, a hurricane watch for eastern Cuba, and a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning for Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-au-Prince. Melissa will move to the northeast by Tuesday, and once it crosses Cuba on Tuesday into Wednesday, it will pose a threat to the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas. The exact impacts on the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos will depend on where the core area of hurricane force winds is at that time.Disclaimer
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