Mark your calendar for Friday — the long-awaited inflation figure is finally dropping. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 a.m. ET, after being delayed due to the government shutdown.
According to economists, year-on-year inflation is forecast to hit 3.1 %, the highest since May 2024 — and month-on-month growth is expected to be around 0.4 %. For context: in August, inflation rose 2.9 % annually.
What does this mean? For one, it means prices are still creeping up, edging away from the Federal Reserve’s 2 % target and putting pressure on how quickly the Fed might cut interest rates. Some analysts say even if inflation holds steady, the Fed’s focus on the job market could keep rate cuts on the table.
Markets are already reacting: Treasury yields rose and gold prices are volatile in anticipation of the data. The anticipated report is more than just a number — it could shift investor expectations and Fed strategy alike.
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