By Jeff Cox
Despite widespread fears to the contrary, President Donald Trump’s tariffs have yet to show up in any of the traditional data points measuring inflation.
In fact, separate readings this week on consumer and producer prices were downright benign, as indexes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that prices rose just 0.1% in May.
The inflation scare is over, then, right?
To the contrary, the months ahead are still expected to show price increases driven by Trump’s desire to ensure the U.S. gets a fair shake with its global trading partners. So far, though, the duties have not driven prices up, save for a few areas that are particularly sensitive to higher import costs.
At least three factors have conspired so far to keep inflation in check:
- Companies hoarding imported goods ahead of the April 2 tariff announcement.
- The time it takes for the charges to make their way into the real economy.
- The lack of pricing power companies face as consumers tighten belts.
“We believe the limited impact from tariffs in May is a reflection of pre-tariff stockpiling, as well as a lagged pass-through of tariffs into import prices,” Aichi Amemiya, senior economist at Nomura, said in a note. “We maintain our view that the impact of tariffs will likely materialize in the coming months.”
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