Rather than the U.S. leadership he promised, Trump has mused that he might just walk away and leave the negotiations to the Europeans — perhaps even the new pope — to sort out. His administration has not committed to additional military or financial aid to Ukraine.
But the timing for putting pressure on Moscow may be more advantageous now than at any point since the early days of the conflict, according to more than a dozen officials who discussed the current state of the war and the sensitive politics and diplomacy surrounding it, most on the condition of anonymity.
Absent a negotiated settlement or “robust” Western assistance, the war “probably will continue to slowly trend in Russia’s favor through 2025,” according to a U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency assessment presented to Congress 10 days ago by DIA Director Lt. Gen Jeffrey Krause. But Russian gains “are slowing and continue to come at the expense of high personnel and equipment losses.”
Since its February 2022 invasion, the DIA assessment said, Russia has “lost at least 10,000 ground combat vehicles, including more than 3,000 tanks, as well as nearly 250 aircraft and helicopters and more than 10 naval vessels.”
Over the past year, Russia has taken only 0.6 percent of additional Ukrainian territory, at the cost of 1,500 killed or wounded per day, current and former Western officials said. “Russia is very gradually taking bits of territory still, but at an unsustainably high cost,” said Richard Barrons, the former head of Britain’s Joint Forces Command. Some officials have estimated Russia’s total casualties at more than a million.
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