What Early Signs Suggest About The 2025 Hurricane Season Ahead

Hurricane season is just two months away, and early indications suggest it might not be as hyperactive as last year’s. Still, several factors hint that it won’t be quiet, either.

For one, forecasters are looking to the oceans for signs of what could be brewing. Seas in the part of the Atlantic where storms typically form are cooler than they were at this time in 2024 — with warmer waters allowing more fuel for strengthening. But seas are nonetheless about 0.7 degrees higher than the long-term average, the eighth-warmest on record since at least 1940.

A marine heat wave remains active across the Caribbean Sea and parts of the Gulf of Mexico — blobs of unusual ocean heat that, should they linger, may tip the scales toward stronger storms close to land.

However, La Niña, which tends to boost hurricane activity, is fading.

Still, no matter how many (or how few) storms form, it takes only one landfall to make a hurricane season devastating.

Last year, five hurricanes made landfall in the contiguous United States — just the ninth season since 1851 to have at least five storm centers hit land. There were 18 storms in total, and the season was considered hyperactive, according to a metric called accumulated cyclone energy.

Ahead of further key forecasts, including one from Colorado State University expected later this week, here’s The Washington Post’s assessment for the coming season, and the four key factors that will shape it:

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