Consumers took a gloomier view of the economy in March, according to the University of Michigan’s monthly survey, a slide that economists fear might depress spending and investment.
The survey’s headline index came in at 57 this month, the lowest level since 2022. That marked a decline from 64.7 in February and 79.4 a year ago. Data published earlier this month had shown a preliminary reading of 57.9.
Two-thirds of consumers said they expect higher unemployment in the next year, the highest reading since 2009.
Most of the concern in the survey centered on a darkening outlook for the economy’s path ahead. The survey’s index of consumer expectations fell by 18% from February. On the other hand, families’ assessments of the current state of the economy slipped by just 2.9% from last month.
Those results reflect a puzzle facing economists and policymakers trying to assess the state of play. There is plenty of evidence that households and businesses alike are anxious that tariffs, federal layoffs and a gradual weakening in the labor market could chill the economy. But so far, there isn’t definitive evidence that the economy is on the cusp of recession.
Earlier this week, a separate consumer survey by the Conference Board, a business-research group, painted a similar picture. That survey’s overall economic-sentiment index fell modestly in March, but the forward-looking component plummeted to the lowest level in 12 years, falling well past the threshold that the Conference Board says typically previews a recession.
Stocks tumbled. The S&P 500 fell 2% on Friday, and the tech-centric Nasdaq lost 2.7%.
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