By Ken Thomas in Saginaw, Mich., Catherine Lucey in Bethlehem, Pa., Eliza Collins in Manchester, N.H., and Paul Overberg in Washington.
Tony Grauslys, a 56-year-old merchandiser from Hudson, N.H., is upset that lawmakers focus on other countries’ problems when America can’t fix its own. Marvin Jenkins, 60, a retired state trooper in Saginaw Township, Mich., worries that both leading presidential candidates are too old. Juliet Will-Robinson, 38, a graduate student from Freemansburg, Pa., wishes there was a viable third-party alternative.
The three voters live in a trio of counties that will have outsize influence in deciding the winner of this year’s presidential election. Michigan’s Saginaw County, Pennsylvania’s Northampton County and New Hampshire’s Hillsborough County are three of just 25 U.S. counties that have backed the presidential winner in each of the past four elections, making them rare enclaves of partisan flexibility in a country where most places are firmly red or blue.
They are among the seven such counties that sit inside hotly contested battleground states that will decide who wins the White House this year, places where the victor can hinge on a few hundred votes.
Collectively, Americans in the 25 counties that have swung with the electorate on average have lower median incomes and lower levels of education than the U.S. on the whole, census data show. They are older, more likely to be white and disproportionately live in smaller cities and rural areas. A greater share are age 65 or over and draw retirement income as compared with the total U.S. Nearly half of these counties have seen their populations shrink in recent years.
What most of these counties have in common is they are largely removed from America’s major economic and cultural power centers. They are home to a graying America where residents worry that the country’s best days are behind it instead of ahead. These voters want a candidate who will propel America forward but instead see flawed options and few fresh ideas.
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