Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics — 10.25.22

 Good Tuesday morning.

In a night filled with insults, a jeering crowd, and two candidates who found little common ground, Gov. Ron DeSantis and Democratic challenger Charlie Crist shared the stage for the first and only time of the 2022 gubernatorial campaign Monday.

Although both candidates shook hands at the debate’s conclusion, the barbs jabbed at each other are set to linger for the next two weeks until Election Day on Nov. 8.

DeSantis is the front-runner in the race and eyes a ticket to four more years in the Governor’s Mansion, running on a record of Florida’s economic strength and furthering conservative values. For Crist, a former Congressman and Republican Governor, Monday night’s debate was an opportunity to tell voters DeSantis lacks the demeanor to lead Florida and the willingness to commit to another full four years as Governor.

In the opening third of the debate, Crist directly asked DeSantis whether he would commit to four years as Governor, playing up widespread speculation that DeSantis intends to challenge President Joe Biden in 2024 for the White House. The Governor did not answer the question — and debate moderator Liz Quirantes of WPEC noted that the candidates agreed to not ask each other questions — but DeSantis hung a pregnant pause before delivering an answer in his own way.

“The only worn-out, old donkey I’m looking to put out to pasture is Charlie Crist,” DeSantis said.

On numerous culture war issues, like immigration, schools’ handling of LGBTQ issues and gender-affirming care, Crist took aim at DeSantis’ ability to lead.

“I don’t know if you ever knew the golden rule, but clearly you have forgotten it,” Crist said. “You don’t have the temperament to be kind and decent to other people who don’t look like you, who don’t act like you, and don’t contribute to you.”

While abortion surged as a top issue for voters this Summer after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, the economy has retaken center stage as a priority, swinging polls back in Republicans’ favor.

On the economy, citing a letter to the Governor that Crist co-signed at the height of the pandemic, DeSantis said Crist would have shut down businesses and schools had he been in charge.

“I took a lot of flak in the process, but through it all, I was always more concerned about protecting your job than I was about saving my own,” DeSantis said. “I took the arrows so you wouldn’t have to.”

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U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio holds a touchdown lead among Hispanic voters two weeks out from Election Day.

According to a new poll from Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, the incumbent Republican is polling at 49% among Hispanic voters statewide while Democratic U.S. Rep. Val Demings is sitting at 42%.

Another 7% are undecided, while 2% are eyeing one of the also-rans.

Rubio, who hails from Miami and is the son of Cuban immigrants, ran up the score among Hispanic voters living in South Florida and those of Cuban heritage, leading by 50 points in the latter bloc. Hispanic voters in the Tampa Bay region also prefer him 56%-38%.

He is likewise crushing Demings 55%-36% with voters who were born outside of the United States. The Democrat holds a statistically insignificant lead (46%-45%) among U.S.-born Hispanic voters.

Demings does perform well with certain slices of the broad demographic. Puerto Rican voters back her 59%-32%, and Hispanic voters in Central Florida — her home turf — break toward her by seven points, 48%-41%. She also leads by eight points among a catchall of Hispanic voters who are neither Cuban nor Puerto Rican.

But other cross tabs spell trouble for the challenger. About one in seven Hispanic Democrats say she has not earned her vote, while Rubio has 93% of Hispanic Republicans in his corner.

The Mason-Dixon poll was conducted Oct. 17-20. It has a sample size of 625 Hispanic voters who said they planned to cast a ballot in the Nov. 8 General Election. The margin of error on the top-line result is plus or minus 4%.

Off embargo — “Telemundo/LX News poll: Marco Rubio commands 7-point lead among Hispanic voters” via Renzo Downey of Florida Politics — Matching DeSantis’ strength, Rubio also holds a 7-point lead over his Democratic challenger. Rubio leads Demings 49%-42% among Hispanic likely voters with two weeks left in his re-election race. Rubio, the son of Cuban exiles, found support equivalent to DeSantis among Latinos with Cuban backgrounds, winning that electorate 72%-22%. Along with Tuesday’s Rubio-Demings results, the Telemundo/LX News poll also surveyed voters on certain issues and their media habits.

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The Florida Chamber of Commerce’s 2022 Future of Florida Forum continues today in Orlando with another batch of presentations and panels featuring some of the top business and policy leaders in the state.

After a Monday agenda focused on education and workforce issues, Tuesday will see the programming turn toward health care, affordable housing, infrastructure and more.

The first half of the schedule will highlight an issue that has drawn a slew of attention and a couple of Special Session calls this year: Property insurance.

After an intro from Shutts & Bowen managing partner Jason Gonzalez, American Tort Reform Association President Sherman “Tiger” Joyce will detail how frivolous litigation has contributed to the market’s tailspin and what the state can do to course correct.

Housing issues will take center stage next with a presentation from ANF Group VP Arthur “AJ” Meyer on the root causes of the current crisis.

Several forward-looking segments follow, including discussions of what Florida’s transportation system might look like — and how it can get there — come 2030.

Florida Transportation Builders’ Association President Ananth Prasad, a former FDOT Secretary, will moderate that panel, which will include Florida Ports Chair and Port Tampa Bay CEO Paul Anderson, former FDOT Secretary and Greater Orlando Aviation Authority CEO Kevin Thibault and Brightline Trains SVP of Corporate Development Christine Kefauver.

The Forum will wrap with a few segments more relevant to the short-term, including slot on the 2020 Midterm Election featuring Cornerstone Solutions founder and President Rick Asnani, political and media strategist Max Goodman of The Max Goodman Agency, and Florida Politics’ own Peter Schorsch.

The full Day Two agenda is available on the Florida Chamber’s website.

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The Southern Group is opening a regional office in Broward County.

The Broward office marks the seventh location for the firm, which ranks among Florida’s top firms in terms of size and revenue. Additionally, TSG announced that government veteran and campaign strategist Heidi Richards is coming aboard to lead the new office.

Richards is a former Chief of Staff to former Broward County Commissioner and Mayor Dale V.C. Holness. Her hire brings years of experience in transportation, housing, infrastructure and economic development issues to the firm.

“Heidi is the perfect choice to launch The Southern Group’s Broward presence,” said Paul Bradshaw, the founder and chair of The Southern Group. “Her amazing work ethic and intellect propelled her to the top ranks of Broward County government, and those same traits will serve our clients well when she represents them before government. She understands the process, policies, and personalities that drive government in Broward County, and that depth of understanding will be invaluable to our clients.”

Over the course of her career, Richards has helped marshal several high-profile projects across the finish line including a $1 billion convention center and hotel project, a $30 million port project, a $95 million runway reconstruction project, and a $122 million transportation surtax initiative.

“Heidi is a relationship builder,” said Broward County Mayor Michael Udine. “Her understanding of policy and strong connections in Broward County and South Florida enable her to navigate the private and the public sectors effectively while doing both with great professionalism. Those qualities will make her a strong asset to The Southern Group team.”

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A couple of other notes:

— Pollsters look for lessons in 2016, 2020 elections: It’s no secret that polls largely underestimated support for Donald Trump in the past two Presidential Elections. Now, they’re taking a variety of steps to improve accuracy. A Wall Street Journal analysis takes a look at what those steps are, and whether they’ll work as more and more strategists, and Americans at large, question the veracity of polling numbers. Read more here.

— Top issues are benefiting Republicans: Momentum is on the GOP’s side as surveys increasingly suggest the Republican Party may retake one or both chambers of Congress. Nate Cohn’s latest New York Times newsletter suggests every Senate race, except for Georgia’s, is trending toward the GOP, with warning signs for Democrats in House races that aren’t typically competitive, such as in Oregon and Rhode Island. The explanation, Cohn describes, is pretty straightforward: it’s all about what is top of mind for voters. Earlier in the election cycle, Democrats were surging on issues related to abortion, gun violence and threats to democracy. But that roar has quieted, morphing instead into concerns over the economy, crime and immigration, all topics on which Republicans thrive.

— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —

—@JimmyPatronis: “The only old donkey I’m looking to put out to pasture is Charlie Crist.” — @GovRonDeSantis Best line of the night. #VoteDeSantis

—@Scott_Maxwell: And there it is. Question is specific: After what week of pregnancy should abortion be banned? DeSantis refuses to answer. Moderator doesn’t follow up. That’s precisely what he wanted.

—@bruceritchie: “We’re going to leave it there,” the moderator says. Drink!

—@MaryEllenKlas: Debate takeaway: There is a reason why groups like the Florida Press Association and Leadership Florida have been allowed to host Florida gubernatorial debates in the past. They have experience knowing what works, how to manage crowds, and egocentric candidates.

—@TamaraLush: Seriously. I want a journalist to tally up the debate minutes based on trans issues vs. insurance

—@jacobogles: Just noting that @CharlieCrist is already flooding social with video clips, and I have yet to see one with @RonDeSantisFL’s voice. I’m sure that will change. But those clips are being retweeted as we speak.

—@WajahatAliL: DeSantis is not a national player based on tonight’s debate. I know MAGA donors think he is, but he is going to wilt under those bright lights in 2024. Can’t wait for him to be exposed to actual pressure.

—@MattOrtega: DeSantis looks ready to be 2024’s Ted Cruz.

—@JesseScheckner: One big takeaway from this debate is that DeSantis is FAR better when there isn’t someone onstage to argue with him. The opposite is true for (Donald) Trump.

— DAYS UNTIL —

City & State Florida Digital Summit — 2; 2022 General Election — 14; ‘The Crown’ Season 5 returns — 15; ‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’ premieres — 17; ‘Captain Marvel 2′ premieres — 17; FITCon 2022 begins — 23; ‘The Flash’ premieres — 23; The World Cup kicks off in Qatar — 27; The U.S. World Cup Soccer Team begins play — 30; Florida TaxWatch’s Annual Meeting begins — 39; ‘Willow’ premieres on Disney+ — 39; 2022 Florida Chamber Annual Insurance Summit — 41; Cormac McCarthy’s ‘Stella Maris’ releases — 42; ‘Avatar 2’ premieres — 52; final Broadway performance of ‘The Music Man’ with Hugh Jackman — 68; Bruce Springsteen launches his 2023 tour in Tampa — 99; ‘Ant Man and the Wasp: Quantumania’ premieres — 115; final performance of ‘Phantom of the Opera’ on Broadway — 116; 2023 Legislative Session convenes — 133; ‘John Wick: Chapter 4′ premieres — 151; American Association of Political Consultants Pollies ’23 conference begins — 175; 2023 Session Sine Die — 192; ‘Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3’ premieres — 192; ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ premieres — 220; Christopher Nolan’s ‘Oppenheimer’ premieres — 269; ‘Dune: Part Two’ premieres — 374; ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ Part 2 premieres — 521; ‘Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes’ premieres — 577; Opening Ceremony of the 2024 Olympic Games — 640; ‘Thunderbolts’ premieres — 640; ‘Blade’ reboot premieres — 682; ‘Deadpool 3’ premieres — 745; ‘Fantastic Four’ reboot premieres — 843; ‘Avengers: The Kang Dynasty’ premieres — 920. ‘Avengers: Secret Wars’ premieres — 1,109.

Sunburn is authored and assembled by Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, Daniel Dean, Renzo Downey, Jacob Ogles, and Drew Wilson.

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