Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics — 10.20.22

 Good Thursday morning.

The latest polling numbers from the SimilarPoll2022 Midterm Election Survey bafflingly suggest both of Florida’s highest-profile races are tossups.

The poll puts U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio in a dead heat with his challenger U.S. Rep. Val Demings, with Demings actually edging Rubio with 40% support to his 38%. Similarly, and just as laughably, the poll shows Democrat Charlie Crist leading Gov. Ron DeSantis by about the same margin.

This poll is either horribly unscientific or the numbers are just bequeathed from somewhere out in La La Land.

The poll shows 43% of respondents indicate they plan to vote on Election Day, with 24% saying they plan to vote by mail and 13% saying they plan to vote early. Let’s compare those numbers to the last Midterm Election in Florida, in 2018. We’re already seeing some major disparities here.

Then, nearly 8.3 million people cast a vote in Florida, according to the Division of Elections. Of those, only 36% voted on Election Day, while 32% voted early and 31% voted by mail.

The problem may be quite simple: It’s not specific to Florida. The poll is conducted nationwide, meaning it’s possible not everyone responding lives in or is even all that familiar with Florida elections.

Now, let’s head back over to the reality peninsula, where about every credible poll shows likely victories for both Rubio and DeSantis.

FiveThirtyEight currently puts DeSantis 7 percentage points ahead of Crist.

The Cook Political Report puts Florida’s Governor’s race in the likely Republican category.

Likewise, with Sabato’s Crystal Ball.

Suffolk University Poll: DeSantis.

Mason-Dixon Polling: DeSantis (by double digits, I might add).

And it’s not much of a different story for Rubio’s chances.

One thing the SimilarPoll gets right is this: The top issue facing voters this cycle is inflation and the cost of living, followed by the economy, issues Republicans dominate, especially when a Democrat occupies the White House. And this is super important, so I’m going to say it loud for folks in the back: THOSE WERE THE TOP TWO ISSUES FOR BOTH POLITICAL PARTIES.

Hope you’ve taken your blood pressure meds; this poll gets the whole saltshaker.

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Annette Taddeo, who is running in Florida’s 27th Congressional District, isn’t throwing away her shot.

Later this morning she’ll rally in Miami with none other than the award-winning songwriter, actor, producer and director (have you seen “Hamilton?”) Lin-Manuel Miranda and other Democratic candidates at a Latino Victory Fund get-out-the-vote rally.

The event begins at 9:45 a.m. at an undisclosed location.

Joining the Taddeo and the Hamilton star are Democratic candidates Maxwell Frost (CD 10), Karla Hernàndez (Lt. Gov.), Janelle Perez (SD 38), A.J. D’Amico (HD 113), and Nathalie Rayes, president and CEO of Latino Victory and Laphonza Butler, president of EMILY’S List.

Democrats statewide are facing major hurdles at the polls this cycle, with recent election forecasts showing gains for GOP candidates and predictions showing a possible red wave in Florida.

Landing the creator of one of Broadway’s biggest sensations ever can’t hurt their chances to shift the tide.

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In less than three weeks, Florida voters will decide who will serve as Governor, U.S. Senator and their representatives in Congress and the state Legislature.

But, Equal Ground contends, they’ll also be deciding the future of democracy — and they don’t mean that in the same way many other organizations do in get-out-the-vote hype videos.

They’re talking about judicial elections.

Specifically, Equal Ground and the other leading plaintiffs in the lawsuit challenging Florida’s new Congressional map are raising awareness about the five Supreme Court justices up for retention in November.

Those justices — or their replacements — will ultimately decide whether the new maps follow the letter of the law or should go back to the drawing board.

Equal Ground, Florida Rising, Black Voters Matter, the League of Women Voters and other organizations have argued that they do not, with their main concern being the dismantling of a North Florida district designed to allow Black Floridians to choose who represents them in D.C.

In a new digital ad campaign, the groups are telling voters that “We Draw the Lines.”

One static ad says, “This election isn’t just about picking our next Governor and U.S. Senator. Floridians will decide which justices remain on the Florida Supreme Court. So, remember to vote all the way down your ballot.” Another states, “These justices will decide the future of Black representation in Florida. It’s up to you.”

The campaign also includes a video laying out the same points, asking “should they stay, or should they go?”

The ad campaign will target Black and brown voters living in Florida’s 4th, 5th, 7th, 9th, 10th, 13th, 14th, 26th and 27th Congressional Districts. It will continue through Election Day.

To watch the ad, please click on the image below:

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Other items on my radar:

— Statistic of the day: About half of Americans believe votes in the Midterm Elections will be counted correctly, meaning the other half thinks they won’t. That’s according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, and it’s actually an improvement from the 2020 Presidential Election when only 4 in 10 voters believed votes would be counted correctly. But the latest poll also finds that only 9% of U.S. adults think democracy is working extremely or very well, while 52% believe it’s not working well. Those are some grim numbers no matter which side of the aisle you’re on. Read more here.

— Democrats are in trouble with Hispanics: Former President Donald Trump began a trend, improving his performance among Hispanic voters at the polls from 2016 to 2022. Polls suggest the trend may yet continue, according to the Wall Street Journal. Trump earned 28% of the Hispanic vote nationwide in 2016. In 2020, he grew that number to 38%. He did even better in Florida, going from 35% in 2016 to 46% in 2020. The numbers, and the possibility that they could continue shifting in the GOP’s favor, suggest a demographic Democrats have long enjoyed as a New Democratic majority may be becoming a swing group. Read more here.

— Tom Cotton’s blacklist: Because it could just as easily be DeSantis’. In his latest “Too Close To Call” observation, David Catanese describes a phenomenon too many of those in his profession have experienced: getting blacklisted. For him, it was Arkansas U.S. Sen. Cotton, or rather, his comms shop, and the impetus was a story written eight years prior that shared, not Catanese’s own opinion on Cotton, but those of Cotton’s own Republican colleagues. Yet it earned him a spot on the dreaded list of reporters without access. The words could just as easily describe reporters in Florida, where members of the media deemed friendly to the administration are rewarded with sit-downs while those who are not are relegated to delayed written comments, or none at all, or worse, fierce zingers on Twitter. Nod along with the experience here.

— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —

—@Scott_Maxwell: For years, Ron DeSantis has staged near-daily tantrums about everything from Joe Biden to the media with fans calling his behavior courageous & proof “he won’t back down.” Yet when Val Demings dishes it out, she’s “angry” and “emotional.” This isn’t even subtle anymore.

—@fineout: The Governor’s Office filed a response in lawsuit seeking records about flights — says @FLCTRGA “has no right to leap ahead of other requesters to have its requests satisfied at breakneck speed just because it may have the resources and wherewithal to engage in litigation.”

—@Mdixon55: Crux of DeSantis legal argument is that someone suing should not “leap ahead other requesters” just because it can sue. In other words: Even if we are at times historically slow at releasing public records (they have been), there should be no recourse

Tweet, tweet:

A cop choosing not to believe evidence should probably be up higher in the AP poll story on American democracy. pic.twitter.com/ffJOG9QCKb

— Wes Wolfe (@WesWolfeFP) October 19, 2022

—@JKennedyReport:.@CharlieCrist campaign manager Austin Durrer leaving “to focus on a family matter,” spox Samantha Ramirez says. Sydney Throop, day-to-day op mgr takes over for homestretch.

Tweet, tweet:

Florida needs to work on its pumpkin ranking ???? pic.twitter.com/fGC8Jclg0K

— Christopher Heath (@CHeathWFTV) October 19, 2022

— DAYS UNTIL —

Taylor Swift’s ‘Midnights’ release — 1; the Gubernatorial General Election debate — 4; Florida Chamber Annual Meeting & Future of Florida Forum — 5; Cormac McCarthy’s ‘The Passenger’ releases — 5; Jon Meacham’s ‘And There Was Light: Abraham Lincoln and the American Struggle’ releases — 5; City & State Florida Digital Summit — 7; Early voting begins for General Election — 9; 2022 General Election — 19; ‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’ premieres — 22; ‘Captain Marvel 2′ premieres — 22; FITCon 2022 begins — 28; ‘The Flash’ premieres — 28; The World Cup kicks off in Qatar — 32; The U.S. World Cup Soccer Team begins play — 35; Florida TaxWatch’s Annual Meeting begins — 44; ‘Willow’ premieres on Disney+ — 44; 2022 Florida Chamber Annual Insurance Summit — 46; McCarthy’s ‘Stella Maris’ releases — 47; ‘Avatar 2’ premieres — 57; final Broadway performance of ‘The Music Man’ with Hugh Jackman — 73; Bruce Springsteen launches his 2023 tour in Tampa — 104; ‘Ant Man and the Wasp: Quantumania’ premieres — 120; final performance of ‘Phantom of the Opera’ on Broadway — 121; 2023 Legislative Session convenes — 138; ‘John Wick: Chapter 4′ premieres — 156; American Association of Political Consultants Pollies ’23 conference begins — 180; 2023 Session Sine Die — 197; ‘Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3’ premieres — 197; ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ premieres — 225; Christopher Nolan’s ‘Oppenheimer’ premieres — 274; ‘Dune: Part Two’ premieres — 379; ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ Part 2 premieres — 526; ‘Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes’ premieres — 582; Opening Ceremony of the 2024 Olympic Games — 645; ‘Thunderbolts’ premieres — 645; ‘Blade’ reboot premieres — 687; ‘Deadpool 3’ premieres — 750; ‘Fantastic Four’ reboot premieres — 848; ‘Avengers: The Kang Dynasty’ premieres — 925. ‘Avengers: Secret Wars’ premieres — 1,114.

Sunburn is authored and assembled by Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, Daniel Dean, Renzo Downey, Jacob Ogles, and Drew Wilson.

The post Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics — 10.20.22 appeared first on Florida Politics – Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government..