Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics — 10.18.22

 Good Tuesday morning.

While Val Demings and her supporters would like to believe otherwise, polls say the U.S. Senate race in Florida is Marco Rubio‘s to lose.

That’s the backdrop as they both meet tonight at 7 p.m. in their only debate. It’s Demings’ last and best chance to sway undecided voters, assuming there are enough of those voters left to make a difference.

Demings needs to believe there will be and Rubio has left her several lines of attack.

It starts with the Republican Party’s embrace of lies and bigotry. The 2020 election wasn’t stolen, despite you-know-who’s repeated claims to the contrary. And while it’s true that Rubio did vote to approve President Joe Biden’s electors.

But while members of his party took positions that marginalize just about everyone outside the GOP base, he has largely been a bystander.

Rubio called a bill to protect same-sex marriage a “stupid waste of time.” Demings would do well to remind him of that. He supported Gov. Ron DeSantis‘ divisive “Don’t Say Gay” bill.

At times, Rubio advocated for cuts to Social Security and Medicare.

While Demings focused on letting voters know who she is (a cop on the beat) and what she stands for (abortion rights), Rubio went all in for name-calling.

Demings isn’t just liberal; she is dangerously radical, according to one pro-Rubio ad. And, as a Democrat in the U.S. House, she voted along with Speaker Nancy Pelosi‘s agenda.

According to federal election records, Demings has spent nearly $60 million on this race, about double what Rubio spent.

Rubio has held a consistent five- to eight-point lead throughout the campaign.

Even if Demings “wins” the debate, she needs people besides the insatiable political junkies to tune in.

It won’t be for lack of opportunity if they don’t. Ten large Florida markets will show the debate. It will also air on statewide public radio and be available on TV websites and Facebook pages.

Assignment editors — Sen. Tina Polsky, Rep. Jervonte Edmonds, and Democratic leader Mindy Koch will hold a news conference ahead of the Senate debate to highlight issues Rubio will have to answer for when he takes the debate stage. Rubio supported introducing legislation to ban abortions nationwide and championed a bill that would raise seniors’ health care costs, among others: 1:30 p.m., Lake Worth. Location upon RSVP at gfox@floridadems.org.

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Here are a few other thoughts:

— Ron DeSantis adviser calls ‘bullshit’ on critique: Phil Cox, a senior adviser to DeSantis and other GOP gubernatorial candidates spoke on David Catanese’s “Too Close to Call” podcast yesterday to talk shop on national trends, homing in specifically on criticism from the left that DeSantis is a “social misfit.” Cox’s immediate response: “Bullshit.” Agree or disagree, his broader point throughout the conversation highlights exactly why I’ve been saying this race is over. DeSantis can weather just about any storm (including a literal one) and still come out America’s Governor. And, as Cox also noted, he stands to potentially benefit from Florida’s unique Hispanic voting bloc, where top-of-mind issues center on the economy, education and public safety, which DeSantis has been laser-focused on. “He’s done the most important thing, which is to govern well,” Cox said, pointing, in addition to other areas, to DeSantis’ ‘keep Florida open’ approach to the pandemic.

— A Republican wave in the House is still quite possible: A CNN poll last week showed Democrats up, but within the margin of error on a generic congressional ballot for the U.S. House, signaling a potential tossup this cycle. But many nonpartisan analysts believe the GOP is nevertheless in a good position to regain a majority in the House and CNN analyst Henry Enten envisions a potential “big Republican night” on Nov. 8. Enten reviewed all House rating data from The Cook Political Report since 2000 and found that when one political party has more races rated “tossup” or “leaning” than the other, predictions don’t perform so well. That’s the case this cycle, with Democrats having 23 more seats than Republicans in either category, not to mention four seats rated as “likely” to flip red. When accounting for Republican over-performance trends, that puts the GOP in a position to control 239 seats in the 435-member chamber. Even without over-performance, Enten predicts they could gain 17 seats, for 230 total — still a majority.

— What Democrats are (should be) reading: New York Times guest essayist Anandi Giridharadas, author of “The Persuaders: At the Front Lines of the Fight for Hearts, Minds, and Democracy,” offered a condensed version of his playbook on how America, in this case, those on the left, can save democracy against the pressing forces of what she describes as fascism. His advice isn’t new but reiterates caution about how a “coalition of progressives, liberals, moderates, even decent Republicans” are “struggling to win the battle for hearts and minds. To change that, he offers, “the pro-democracy” side must nix its “mix of fatalism and despair” and instead build a movement that is “feisty, galvanizing, magnanimous, rooted and expansionary.” Simply put, they must ditch the liberal elite label and get a little more comfortable with responding to Americans’ unmet needs, rather than “a naive and high-minded view of human nature.” Read more here.

— Education is the iceberg issue of the midterms: Look no further than Glenn Youngkin’s win last year in purple Virginia, largely attributable to mounting frustration over pandemic-era school closures and the lasting implications on children and families. Pair that with new reporting that ACT scores among American high school grads are at their lowest point in 30 years, and it’s clear the education issue is among the top Midterm Election topics. As Democrats already face a challenge this cycle as the party in power in Washington, a status that historically has served as an impediment, they must also contend with what Hugh Hewitt describes in The Washington Post as Republicans’ status as “the party of change in American education.” From ongoing pandemic recovery to combating “wokeness” in public schools, Democrats have a lot to consider as Nov. 8 draws near.

— How should a business bro dress? Finance bros, as The New York Times’ Guy Trebay described them, are leading the way in return-to-work post-pandemic fashion. Trebay, a menswear critic, observed professional men of all shapes and sizes from Brookfield Place in Manhattan where he noticed often random and universally surprising trends. They looked entirely up to date. “That is, if the date in question were 2010.” Crisp white shirts with an open collar. Snug pants. Lace-up Oxfords. There is a slight change, post-pandemic. A Goldman Sachs employee noted the office was “a little less dressy than before,” with neckties no longer a requisite, save for client meetings. And the dressed-down looks aren’t entirely passe. “Unlined cashmere blazers, dark jeans and Allbirds are symbolic vectors of seniority,” an investment banker at a blue-chip firm told the Times.

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Let’s do this again — SPOTTED — This weekend at the 25th Annual Phil Galvano Golf Classic at The Resort at Longboat Key Club: Bill Galvano, Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nuñez; Education Commissioner Manny Diaz Jr.; Sens. Jeff Brandes, Denise Grimsley, Joe Gruters, Ed Hooper and Keith Perry; Reps. Fiona McFarland and Will Robinson; Commissioners Vanessa Baugh, Nancy Detert, Alex Díaz de la Portilla, George Kruse, James Satcher, Carol Whitmore; Mayors Gene Brown and Eric Arroyo; Manatee County Administrator Scott Hopes; Manatee County School Superintendent Cynthia Saunders and Board member Chad Choat; Rob Bradley, Richard Corcoran, Mark Flanagan, Tom Lee, Shane McCallahan, Katie Morrissey, David Simmons, Jim Waldman and Taylor Yarkosky.

— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —

Tweet, tweet:

Annual inflation via BLS just out:

42.9% airline fares
33.1% utility gas
30.5% eggs
18.2% gasoline
17.2% chicken
15.7% coffee
15.2% milk
14.7% bread
10.1% furniture
9.2% vegetables
8.2% all items
8.2% fruit
8.1% ham
7.6% women apparel
7.2% used cars
6.7% rent
3.7% men apparel

— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) October 13, 2022

Tweet, tweet:

Change in generic ballot, September to October:

NYT/Siena D+2 —> R+4
Fox News D+3 —> D+3
CBS News R+1 —-> R+2
Harvard-Harris D+2 —-> R+6https://t.co/hGaWL9zWPn

— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) October 17, 2022

—@RealChrisRufo: The most liberating thing you can do as a conservative is to stop caring about the approval of people who hate you. I’ve learned to see these media fights as accelerants to my campaigns, rather than personal judgments on me. They do not matter in my day-to-day life at all.

Tweet, tweet:

Analysts at Fitch Ratings have increased their estimate for re/insurance industry losses from Hurricane Ian to a range of $35 billion to $55 billion. https://t.co/KpSa7QfAjB

— Jeff Brandes (@JeffreyBrandes) October 17, 2022

Tweet, tweet:

Shot.

Chaser. pic.twitter.com/vUbYArUgcZ

— Renzo Downey (@RenzoDowney) October 17, 2022

Tweet, tweet:

This is an interesting mailer.

Sent to my home … in South Carolina. pic.twitter.com/HBlUarGLHM

— Meg Kinnard (@MegKinnardAP) October 17, 2022

Tweet, tweet:

.⁦@AndrewGillum⁩ now telling a federal court that he wants a separate trial from his co-defendant, Sharon Lettman-Hicks. pic.twitter.com/1fzg6WTohK

— Jim Rosica (@JimRosicaFL) October 17, 2022

—@ChrisTisch1: If I were in charge, the day of the fall’s first real cool front in the Tampa Bay area would be a regional holiday and everyone would get the day off.

— DAYS UNTIL —

Taylor Swift’s ‘Midnights’ release — 3; the Gubernatorial General Election debate — 6; Florida Chamber Annual Meeting & Future of Florida Forum — 7; Cormac McCarthy’s ‘The Passenger’ releases — 7; Jon Meacham’s ‘And There Was Light: Abraham Lincoln and the American Struggle’ releases — 7; City & State Florida Digital Summit — 9; Early voting begins for General Election — 11; 2022 General Election — 21; ‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’ premieres — 24; ‘Captain Marvel 2′ premieres — 24; FITCon 2022 begins — 30; ‘The Flash’ premieres — 30; The World Cup kicks off in Qatar — 34; The U.S. World Cup Soccer Team begins play — 37; Florida TaxWatch’s Annual Meeting begins — 46; ‘Willow’ premieres on Disney+ — 46; 2022 Florida Chamber Annual Insurance Summit — 48; McCarthy’s ‘Stella Maris’ releases — 49; ‘Avatar 2’ premieres — 59; final Broadway performance of ‘The Music Man’ with Hugh Jackman — 75; Bruce Springsteen launches his 2023 tour in Tampa — 106; ‘Ant Man and the Wasp: Quantumania’ premieres — 122; final performance of ‘Phantom of the Opera’ on Broadway — 123; 2023 Legislative Session convenes — 140; ‘John Wick: Chapter 4′ premieres — 157; American Association of Political Consultants Pollies ’23 conference begins — 182; 2023 Session Sine Die — 199; ‘Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3’ premieres — 199; ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ premieres — 227; Christopher Nolan’s ‘Oppenheimer’ premieres — 276; ‘Dune: Part Two’ premieres — 381; ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ Part 2 premieres — 528; ‘Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes’ premieres — 584; Opening Ceremony of the 2024 Olympic Games — 647; ‘Thunderbolts’ premieres — 647; ‘Blade’ reboot premieres — 689; ‘Deadpool 3’ premieres — 752; ‘Fantastic Four’ reboot premieres — 850; ‘Avengers: The Kang Dynasty’ premieres — 927. ‘Avengers: Secret Wars’ premieres — 1,116.

Sunburn is authored and assembled by Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, Daniel Dean, Renzo Downey, Jacob Ogles, and Drew Wilson.

The post Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics — 10.18.22 appeared first on Florida Politics – Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government.