Diplomatic momentum has picked up in the war between Ukraine and Russia. After Trump announced that he would meet Putin in Budapest “within two weeks,” talks on a cease-fire and broader peace agreement have moved to centre stage.
However, substantial obstacles remain. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reaffirmed that Kyiv will not accept any deal that cedes territory or excludes Ukraine from negotiations. Moscow’s demands for recognition of control over parts of eastern Ukraine, especially the Donetsk region, appear non-negotiable for now.
Analysts from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) argue that the most plausible outcome is a “frozen” conflict — a formal pause along current frontlines without full resolution — rather than a comprehensive peace treaty.
European leaders have also stepped in, advocating for a structured peace plan that includes Ukraine’s security guarantees and reconstruction aid — though they caution that blunt pressure on Russia is required.
For now, the coming fortnight is critical. Trump’s upcoming summit with Putin could mark a turning point — or merely set the stage for prolonged stalemate.
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