Good Wednesday morning.
As any of you who read this newsletter are aware, a poll of the Democratic Primary for Governor was released yesterday that has Nikki Fried leading Charlie Crist. I, like many, believe there are flaws with the methodology of this poll. So, I would like to do more polling of this race, especially since we ask those who already cast a ballot which candidate earned their vote.
But, as you know, good polling can be expensive.
So, we’d like to see if there is any appetite for crowdfunding one more survey from St. Pete Polls. To do so, we need to raise $2,500 to run a poll this week.
Would you consider kicking in something to pay for that poll? If so, PayPal FP at PayPal.me/FloridaPolitics. We are setting a minimum contribution to this tip jar of $10, although we hope you will consider donating north of that. If we get enough money together, we’ll do the poll; if not, we’ll refund your money.
If you do put something in the kitty, we’ll include your name (if you want) in the stories about the polls. We’ll also — and perhaps more importantly — share with you the results of the survey the night before we publish the story (so long as you agree to keep the result confidential until we publish.)
Thanks, in advance, for being part of this.
Speaking of polls …
The Republican Primary for Florida’s 13th Congressional District has turned into a dead heat between Anna Paulina Luna and Kevin Hayslett, but the presence of three other candidates on the ballot could play a big role in the outcome.
According to St. Pete Polls, Luna currently leads the pack with 37% support followed by Hayslett at 33.5%. However, 38.3% of those polled have already cast a ballot and Hayslett has banked a lead on those voters, with 39.4%-37.1%.
Luna’s lead over Hayslett among the 61.7% of CD 13 Republicans yet to vote is a slim 3.5%, and one in five voters who are still up for grabs aren’t picking either candidate — Amanda Makki is nabbing most of those votes.
Still, 13.2% of those who haven’t voted are undecided, leaving plenty of space for one candidate or another to surge in the final stretch.
Additionally, 2.4% of those who have voted wouldn’t share their pick with the pollster, and if that segment is tilted substantially in one candidate’s favor it could prove to be the difference-maker in a race where the eventual winner is expected to trap less than 40% of the vote.
The tight race reflects the massive amount of spending by Luna, Hayslett and the various political committees that are supporting them.
Stand for Florida, a committee backing Hayslett, has spent more than $800,000 to produce and air anti-Luna ads in the past week. Club for Growth Action, which is supporting Luna, spent nearly as much on TV, radio and mail ads attacking Hayslett.
Luna is also getting back up from far-right stars such as U.S. Reps. Lauren Boebert and Marjorie Taylor Greene, the latter of which will head to the district to stump for Luna.
— Christina Pushaw’s shift to Gov. Ron DeSantis’ re-election campaign was a kind way of saying “bye Felicia,” Mac Stipanovich writes. If you think he’s wrong, go ahead and name one other staffer on the Governor’s re-election team. He’ll wait.
— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —
—@POTUS: The Inflation Reduction Act is now law. Giving Medicare the power to negotiate lower prescription drug prices. Ensuring wealthy corporations pay their fair share in taxes. And taking the biggest step forward on climate in our history.
—@GovRonDeSantis: @CaseyDeSantis and I are praying for the @MiamiDadePD officer who was shot in the line of duty last night. Florida stands with our law enforcement and will support the Miami-Dade police community during this difficult time.
—@MikeBloomberg: The free exchange of ideas in classrooms is critical to higher education and democratic society. A new law in Florida seeks to limit open debate — and the future of the country rests on the commitment of higher-education leaders to defend it.
—@MBeltranFL: @, I enjoyed reading your in-depth analysis as always. Bottom line is @ has a good lawyer, but even @ isn’t good enough to beat @ in @. So, mark my words, this isn’t going to be the 2nd exception.
—@JamesUthmeier: The State of Florida is where Woke goes to die.
Another one in the books. Thank you @ShevrinJones @ElectSmith28 @Hawkins4florida @CHunschofsky @kamiabrownfl45 for joining the @FJJAssociation to help plan our year ahead serving Florida’s kids! pic.twitter.com/fvsMmlEF7u
— Christian Minor (@chris_minor10) August 16, 2022
We can do it ! 💪 pic.twitter.com/nyJ0xPNyXU
— Michelle Salzman (@michellesalzman) August 16, 2022
—@Malika_Andrews: The NBA announced that no games will be played on Election Day — Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022, and encourage players and fans to vote in the midterms.
—@Fineout: Noted this trend before but @ last wk announced a plan to dismantle regional desks as part of new unified approach that furthers AP’s retreat from covering states. Internal memo: It’s abt “telling the story of the U.S. from states as opposed to ‘for’ specific state audiences.”
Sunburn is authored and assembled by Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, Daniel Dean, Renzo Downey, Jacob Ogles, and Drew Wilson.
This article originally appeared here and was republished with permission.