Are you craving a frozen pizza lately? You’re not alone. Maybe it’s because the weather’s warmer, maybe you’re jonesing for a lazy-day treat, or maybe it’s because the stock market’s down and tariffs are throwing everything into chaos.
The uncertainty in the economy has people on the hunt for recession indicators — not just potential labor market weakness or spending pullbacks, but also more specific signals that suggest dark times are nigh. Consumers on edge, for example, buy more lipstick as a still-affordable luxury, or they start to scoop up smaller bottles of liquor. Another peculiar sign they’re feeling pinched by the economy: They buy more frozen pizza, specifically, the fancy kind.
“This happens every sort of downturn in the economy — there’s increased demand for premium frozen pizzas, high-priced frozen pizzas,” said Craig Zawada, the chief visionary officer at Pros Holdings, a price optimization company. It’s a bit counterintuitive, he added, since you’d think consumers are more cost-conscious, but it’s actually a trade that makes sense because “they’re replacing eating out to having a good frozen pizza at home.”
So next time you find yourself lingering in the frozen section, know that your hankering for DiGiorno might be due to a case of economic anxiety.
When people are feeling pinched — economically, existentially — they turn to the grocery store frozen section. In 2009, in the midst of the Great Recession, frozen food sales grew by 3.1%. When the pandemic hit, frozen pizza sales spiked by nearly $1 billion from the year before, from $5.8 billion in revenue in 2019 to $6.6 billion in revenue in 2020, per the market research firm IBISWorld.
“Frozen pizza has always been a good category,” Alexander Chafetz, an investment banker who does dealmaking in the consumer space, said. “But it came into focus, I would say, during the pandemic, when people weren’t working, money was tight, and you had to feed a family at night. Frozen pizza is a very economical way to feed your family.”
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