This is a 1:30PM Update: South Florida will need to keep the focus on Tropical Storm Dorian during the days ahead, because the possibility of impacts from this system are increasing. We’re likely to be in the 4-to-5 day “cone” by the advisory package that comes out at 5 pm on Monday.
South Florida Reporter, will post updates as needed.
By late morning, Dorian was looking better organized. At 11 am, it was located near 12.3 North, 57.7 West, and was moving west-northwest at 14 miles per hour. Maximum sustained winds were still 60 miles per hour, but strengthening is possible before Dorian arrives in the Lesser Antilles later on Monday. Dorian also poses a threat to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola later this week.
Our concern for South Florida is during the weekend. At this time, computer models suggest that Dorian will pass through the Bahamas and very near or over South Florida. The intensity forecast, as always, is challenging and depends on how much Dorian is disrupted by mountains in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. A weak Dorian won’t have as much time to restrengthen over the warm waters of the Bahamas. However, if Dorian holds together during the next few days, the National Hurricane Center’s official forecast of a strong tropical storm by Saturday would likely have to be revised upward.
Bottom line: check on Dorian’s progress regularly, review your hurricane plan, and check your hurricane supplies. We may or may not need to take additional action later in the week, but this is a wake-up call that the heart of the hurricane season is here.