But as the planet warms, storms are increasingly surpassing what was once considered extreme, according to research published Monday. Now, two scientists are proposing a new label they say a growing number of storms already merit: Category 6.
“Climate change has demonstrably made the strongest storms stronger,” said Michael Wehner, a senior scientist at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. “Introduction of this hypothetical Category 6 would raise awareness of that.”
Meteorologists have for years debated whether the current hurricane scale adequately captures the hazards of today’s storms — it only takes winds into account, not pounding waves or flooding — and whether a new top-end category is needed. With the new research, the scientists say they are formalizing that discussion, in hopes of spurring more academic debate about the ways climate change is heightening weather hazards as we know them.
“Having [Category 5] mean anything above a certain threshold is becoming more and more problematic,” Kossin said. “It tends to understate the risk.”
There is no sign that government hurricane forecasters will revise their rating scale anytime soon — and some meteorologists disagree on whether it should be adopted. Still, the proposal underscores how dramatically the potential for extreme storms has surged.
As global temperatures rise, oceanic and atmospheric warming are more often creating a prime environment for storms to rapidly strengthen and swirl more forcefully than ever.
The scientists predict the trend will only accelerate in warm basins such as the Gulf of Mexico, where some sea surface temperature readings surpassed 100 degrees amid record global warmth last summer. Scientists forecast the threat will worsen once planetary temperatures average 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels. In that scenario, they say the risk of Category 6 storms in the Gulf will double.
The research adds to a growing body of understanding — and proof — that global warming translates to stronger storms.
Global warming has already translated to increasing odds of major hurricanes around the world, according to research Kossin led that was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in 2020. Other studies have found that as temperatures rise, more hurricanes are undergoing what meteorologists call rapid intensification, and they are doing so at accelerating rates.
Are Category 6 hurricanes In Our Future?
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